Is the interest rate cut view skipped and the interest rate rise again?

Is the interest rate cut view skipped and the interest rate rise again?

The view of rising interest rates due to inflation makes sense that neutral interest rates may have risen considerably.

The CRB Index has been at an all-time high since 2022, with rallies coming from a range of raw materials, including cocoa, gasoline, natural rubber and gold.

There is a possibility that the increase in raw material prices may be transferred to the commodity price.

Also, the six-month annualized Core PCE is on the rise. This supports Higher for Longer, but not a story that supports a rate cut.

A Russian refiner was attacked by a drone and controlled gasoline exports for six months, but there is also a possibility of a diesel export ban to meet domestic demand in the future.

As the game is not broken, there is no agreement on the overkill narrative at all, and it seems that the possibility of making further increases is quite open.