The reality of the U.S. economy is that it looks

미국이 계속 증시는 튼튼하지만

이게 계속 유지할 수 있을지는 의구심이 듭니다

다음주 파월연준의장이 무슨말을 하는지 따라서

시장이 어떻게 급변하는지가 중요변수가 될것 같습니다


The reality of the U.S. economy is that it looks normal on the outside, but festering on the inside. It is holding out thanks to the rush of money during the pandemic, a rebound in the stock market, and the rapid pace of the AI boom, but it will become more and more burdensome over time. To defend against the recession here, the Fed must cut interest rates. Will the Fed really think so?

Chairman Powell attended Congress for two days. It is a mandatory defense of the Fed chairman. Here, Republicans urge them to pitch hard to curb inflation. It means not to lower interest rates. On the other hand, Democrats emphasize the pain of high interest rates. It means to lower interest rates quickly. How did Powell respond?

For Republicans, lowering interest rates requires confidence that prices have stabilized, and for Democrats, it's not too long before they have that confidence. Markets cheered here as comments about Democrats were made in the Senate and were the latest. Will the Fed cut rates quickly?

The Fed operates according to its own logic. There is no reason to hurry because it is not a place to make money. It is important not to be broken. Recently, prices have caused difficulties, so all eyes are on the possibility of a recurrence of inflation. If so, there is no need to risk your life to cut interest rates. Perhaps the interest rate cut will begin in earnest only when the unemployment rate far exceeds 4% and the signs of an economic downturn are clear. Before that, it can be lowered with a grain of salt, but there is a high possibility that it will fall slightly and then rise again and again for a long time. Expectations for a rate cut by the Fed are raising Bitcoin and stocks, but this is why it is difficult to see it as a favorable factor in the mid- to long-term.

Interest rate cuts are likely to lead to a recession. In the event of an economic recession, we should not forget that it is a rate cut that is used as a stimulus measure.