테슬라가 급등하네요

테슬라가 급등하네요

코스피코스닥 급등할때 2차전지가 뭔가 느낌이 좋더라니... 이게 이런식으로 연결고리가 생기나봅니다

FSD발전속도 보다보면 감탄만 나오는데

이제는 주가가 확실하게 다시한번 보여주었으면

좋겠습니다


코스피과 코스닥도 이제 강력한추세를 계속 이어갈 수 있을것 같네요

The KOSPI rose to 2,718p, although it was a daily low.

The fact that it was broken in one day is still too much to reach the 2,750 mark, and most likely it was a short-term overshoot due to quadruple whinging day.

In addition, this week, the U.S. FOMC meeting, Japan's BOK monetary policy meeting, and China's real indicators are scheduled to be announced.

Ahead of the important event, I will comment on the points to watch, the expected results, the index forecast based on it, and the investment strategy.

Here are some of the details.

As expected, KOSPI has attempted to surpass the 2,700-point mark due to bond rates, downward stabilization of the dollar, easing concerns over deflation in China, and improving trade. This is also the result of cyclical sales of export/growth stocks and industries (automobiles, finance, etc.) that are expected to strengthen shareholder return policies ahead of the general shareholders' meeting season.

At this point, I don't think it's easy to level up additional KOSPI. It's close to the PBR of 1x (2,760 points) based on confirmed performance. In order to level up the valuation, it is necessary to drive down the interest rate level and strengthen the momentum of the economy… We are wary of the possibility that there will be no momentum for the valuation level up immediately, but rather weaken.

This is because China's economic momentum (release of real indicators on March 18) and the U.S. monetary policy (FOMC meeting on the 21st), which were key drivers of the KOSPI's 2,700-point settlement this week, are at an inflection point. We need to leave open the possibility that expectations for a Chinese economic recovery and a U.S. rate cut will weaken. On top of that, prospects for a rate hike and the abolition of the YCC are also strengthening at the BOJ Monetary Policy Meeting (scheduled from 18th to 19th).

This week, the results of U.S. and Japanese monetary policy and Chinese economic indicators will determine the overall fluctuations of the global financial market as well as the stock market. In the process of passing through important inflection points, bond rates and the dollar are unlikely to rise sharply, or global stock markets, including KOSPI, will trend downward.

In March, China's PMI, trade indicators, and prices fared better than expected, easing deflation concerns, and the US monetary policy is at eye level between the Fed's dot plot and the market consensus. Unless the dot plot changes, the impact on global financial markets is expected to be limited. It is only a matter of whether the BOJ's monetary policy will normalize in March or April.

Although it may stimulate investor anxiety, the market already has a lot of different scenarios on the U.S. FOMC, China's economic outlook, and Japan's BOJ.

Thus, the U.S. bond rate, the dollar is expected to attempt further rebound to the all-high point (bond rate 4.35%, around USD 104.5p), but I think it is unlikely to level up beyond that. The KOSPI is mindful of the possibility of testing support around the 2,610 mark. The index is a 38.2% return from its gains since its January 24 low and can expect short-term support at a 12-month lead PBR of 0.89 times (average since 23). The U.S. S&P 500 and Nasdaq are also likely to gain support around the 5,000-mark and 15,600 mark.

We believe that this week's fluctuations due to variables in the U.S., China, and Japan are short-term trading opportunities. This is because the direction of monetary policy and macro environment has not yet changed. If the KOSPI falls to the low 2,600 level this week, we need to respond with a rebound open to the 2,750 level once again.

This week's most important event, and the inflection point will be the March FOMC scheduled for the 21st (3 a.m. Korean time). First of all, the base rate decision is no longer an issue at the March FOMC. The interest rate freeze has become a fait accompli at the March FOMC, with the probability of freezing the interest rate based on the FED Watch reaching 99%. What matters now is the dot plot and changes in the economic outlook.

The Fed's dot plot at the December FOMC shows the possibility of a rate cut of 4.6% in 24 years and 3.6% in 25 years, three times in 24 years and four times in 25 years. I don't think it's likely that the dot plot will change at the FOMC this March. The economic indicators confirmed in March show that the deflationary phase is in place, but the slowdown is slower than expected at the beginning of the year. On the other hand, signs of slowing consumption and labor markets have intensified

Although it is too early for the Fed to be confident in normalizing prices to begin cutting interest rates in March, it is believed that it has entered a phase where it is concerned about the clear slowdown signal to postpone the cut until the third quarter. For now, we expect to maintain the current situation and adjust the timing of rate cuts once again at the FOMC in May and June.

Meanwhile, in terms of the economic outlook, the 24-year GDP growth outlook is inevitable. The 24-year GDP growth rate proposed by the Fed at the December FOMC was 1.4%, while the current Bloomberg consensus has been raised to 2.1%. Therefore, the key is the increase in the 24-year GDP growth rate, which is likely to be in the late 1% range at the FOMC in March.
It is expected to reflect the recent sluggish economic indicators mentioned earlier. In fact, the Federal Reserve System of Atlanta's GDP growth forecast for the first quarter has been leveled down from 3.2% to 2.3% last week due to sluggish retail sales. If there is a 2% growth forecast, it will be possible to interpret it hawkishly. This is because in a phase of 2% high growth, the extent or intensity of interest rate cuts may be limited due to changes in prices.

The price outlook is likely to be slightly lowered only by headline PCE prices. Investors' anxiety will grow if the upward revision of the GDP growth outlook overwhelms the downward revision of PCE prices.

Despite the expectation that the change in the dot plot will be limited, the reason for the FOMC's vigilance in March is the dot plot distribution. Despite the change in distribution, three rate cuts will be maintained in 24 years, but a hawkish interpretation is possible if the number of Fed members who cut rates more than four times is significantly reduced.

According to the distribution of dot plots at the end of 24 years, out of a total of 19 Fed members in December last year, five said they cut more than four times, six said three times, and eight said two or fewer cuts. In other words, the number of Fed members expected to cut interest rates more than three times and less than two times based on the dot plot is 11:8.

Most Fed members will move more than four times here, around four times or three times. In this case, I think the prospect of more than three cuts could be close to a majority. So, we expect the median dot plot to remain at three times.

Meanwhile, in order for the median 24-year dot plot to be raised to two cuts, two cuts or two or more opinions must be increased less than two times. To sum up the recent remarks by FOMC participants, Raphael Bostic, president of the Fed, is likely to change the outlook for the benchmark interest rate from three cuts to two, and Neil Kashkari, president of the Fed, from his opinion on freezing interest rates to two cuts.

Even considering this, I don't think it's easy to change the dot plot by cutting interest rates twice.

In fact, data that index the Fed members' speech stance through AI models provided by JPMorgan and Bloomberg show that the stance has eased somewhat, although it is still hawkish. Before and after the December FOMC, the Fed Speak Index was 14.16p and 8.33p for JPMorgan and Bloomberg, respectively, but it has now been leveled down to 10.32p and 2.21p as of March 15. With the removal of the interest rate cut in March, the hawkish distribution of dot plots will inevitably change, but it is unlikely that the median value of dot plots will change.

If the dot plot is maintained at the FOMC in March as interest rate cuts three times in 24 years and four times in 25 years, global financial market volatility will be limited even if there are fluctuations due to changes in distribution. Above all, market consensus has already been aligned with the Fed's dot plot, and in a way, interest rate freeze concerns tend to flow in strongly.

Currently, Bloomberg WIRP's December 24 benchmark interest rate forecast is 4.608%. That's the Fed's end-of-year dot plot of 4.6%. So, if the dot plot is maintained, the current benchmark interest rate outlook is at a point where it can retreat.

Based on FED Watch, the probability of interest rate freezing at the FOMC in May is already over 90%, and the probability of a rate cut at the FOMC in June is only 55%. On the other hand, the probability of interest rate freezing, which was 0% in January, is over 40%.

If the rate cut is reaffirmed three times in 24, the probability of a rate cut will rise and the probability of a freeze will fall, which will be a turning point for relief to flow into global financial markets, including bonds.

Contrary to our expectations, if the 24-year dot plot is raised or the 24-year dot plot is maintained (the September 23 FOMC case) the short-term impact on the stock market will inevitably be amplified. The possibility of entering a mid-term adjustment phase should also be left open. Because the start of the rate cut will be pushed from June to September, and the interest rate on government bonds and the upper end of the dollar range (around 4.35% based on 10-year terms) will be opened. However, I think that's unlikely.

The FOMC will also pay attention to the QT speed control variables. It is expected that the government will slow down the pace of asset reduction centered on government bonds in the future. This is because exhaustion of reverse repo balance itself can be a problem, and if reverse repo balance is exhausted, QT can directly affect the reduction of reserves. In this case, it will be difficult for banks to secure sufficient reserves, and short-term liquidity and volatility in the money market may increase.

The December FOMC already announced that there will be a detailed discussion on QT in March. The key point is the timing. Currently, the QT speed adjustment that global IBs predict will start in April, and the early QT end will be expected in June. It means that a clear schedule should be presented at the March FOMC. At best, it will be in line with the consensus, otherwise, the market will be disappointed with the timing of QT speed adjustment.

The BOK monetary policy meeting is scheduled from the 18th to the 19th before the U.S. House of Representatives Budget Committee on February 22nd, starting with Ueda's remarks that the Japanese economy is in an "inflationary state" and recently presented at the Japan Spring Investment Committee