A Study on the Employment Security of Large Enterprises

- A Study on the Employment Security of Large Enterprises

The stock market is a forest where fallen leaves accumulate. Fallen leaves continue to accumulate in the forest. Until a forest fire breaks out, fallen leaves continue to accumulate. And one day, a thunderbolt strikes a forest fire. If a lot of fallen leaves are piled up, a big forest fire occurs, and if a small pile of fallen leaves is piled up, a small forest fire occurs.

Forests have flourished for tens of thousands of years. Countless wildfires have occurred, but they have continued to descend. However, as humans artificially controlled them, the year without wildfires continued. As a result, tremendous wildfires have begun to occur that are simply out of control. Yellowstone Park is said to have hundreds of wildfires a year due to lightning. It has been a 'Let It Burn Policy' since 1972. In other words, it is a policy of leaving wildfires alone.

The U.S. stock market has become like a forest that has been kept under control since 2008 without wildfires. With quantitative easing and fiscal policy, small wildfires have been put out right away to avoid wildfires like in 2000 and 2008. So now there is a huge pile of leaves. There are a lot of dead trees, too. In other words, there is a lot of foam.

Looking at the inflation-adjusted S&P 500 chart, the 2000 and 2008 crashes make sense to me. From 1982 to 2000, leaves had accumulated for 18 years. Now, 16 years from 2008 to 2024, leaves have been accumulating. Within 4 years, there is likely to be the same collapse as in 2000 or 2008. The recession in the 16 years since 2008 was only a few short months during the COVID-19. It's an artificial adjustment. That happened in 2000 because the Fed Chairman Greenspan, Maestro, artificially created a situation where there were no major wildfires in the 8s and 90s.

That doesn't mean a bubble will burst in 25 years. I'm not Kang Chilcheon. Just as we can't guess when a wildfire will break out, we can't match a stock price versus a crash. The bubble that continued without adjustment since the 50s was adjusted for the 70s crash. It seems that if bubbles accumulate for nearly 20 years, they will eventually burst.

The problem is that the end of the bubble is unknown because we don't know when it will burst.

There has been quite a lot of restructuring of large companies this year. It wasn't just for a specific industry group, it was for almost all industries. Restructuring of large companies is still in progress.

In 2023, investment funds ran out, mainly for startups, and restructuring took place. Large companies with relatively sufficient financial power endured the year of 2023, and began full-scale restructuring in 2024.

There's a message that goes by.

"Now, big companies are guaranteed retirement age"

That's the message.
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Over the past decade or so, job security for large corporations has seemed to have increased significantly, as there has been no significant restructuring except for large corporations with large accumulated deficits.

The cliché of the conglomerate, "It's not strange when it's cut from your 40s," seemed to have disappeared.

However, this was a mistake. Over the past decade or so, large South Korean companies have achieved rapid growth. In most industries, large South Korean companies have broken new records every year. They have grown so skillfully that no large companies seem to have grown.

Growing businesses also have a lower need for restructuring. This is due to the fact that as the business grows, manpower is constantly needed, and the advantages of internal transition arrangements are greater than external recruitment without technology-intensive tasks.

In the midst of this growth, the cliché of the "40s retirement age" conglomerate seemed to have disappeared, and instead the words "x-employees" began to take hold, saying they could work as reliably as public servants.

Forgetting that fast growth and job security were attributed to the "2008 Subprime Restructuring."
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Restructuring, which was thought to only take place in the startup market in 2023, happened extensively in large corporations the following year, in 2024. There have been restructuring in places where news has been made known through Internet articles, and otherwise quietly. There is also a widespread process of separating subsidiaries, which is a "de facto restructuring."

Still, people believe, "Large companies have excellent job security."

However, I believe that expecting job security at large corporations is a false hope. The high growth potential has contributed to the job security of large corporations over the past decade or so, and it is not an act that large corporations will change their minds and hire them until retirement.

More importantly, the stable employment of large corporations over the past decade or so was due to large-scale restructuring as a follow-up to the 2009 subprime.
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The economy in 2025 also seems to be difficult to smooth. Even large corporations that are still holding out are increasingly likely to go into restructuring.

Businesses do not hire workers in favor. They do so because they are worth using. Also, wage spending is one of the most onerous expense items for businesses.

All you have to believe in is yourself and your ability.

In 2025, employment insecurity at large corporations is likely to emerge again as a major keyword in society for the first time in more than a decade.