I'm Lee Kyung-min, in charge of investment strategy at Daishin Securities.

I'm Lee Kyung-min, in charge of investment strategy at Daishin Securities.

Last weekend, there was a strong turnaround, but... It was a bummer.

Still, I think the reversal, which came as trading volume rose, is meaningful, the strongest gain since Dec. 10.

By the way… I think there are a lot of bad news in January.

Trump's inauguration, Q4 earnings season, domestic political risks, etc...

Let's take a look around.

Are these new bad news??? Trump risk has been reflected since October, and earnings anxiety has also been reflected since September 24.

The fluctuations caused by domestic political risks are inevitable, but rather than getting worse, I think it is a discord in the resolution process.

Then I'll think the other way around.

What if the Trump risk is fully pre-screened now?

What if performance expectations are already at the bottom due to performance instability?

What if political risks are resolved unexpectedly quickly?

"There's nothing worse in January!" That's why you can rebound autonomously

Unrested Sentiment Truly Technological Rebound...

What if uncertainty variables ease? I think it's possible to try to reverse the mood and reverse the trend.

I wrote the details in my monthly outlook.

Here's a roundup of issues that should be of interest in January, including how to view Trump risks, points to watch for the fourth quarter earnings season, the name and cancer of domestic political risks, current supply and demand conditions, CES and JPM Healthcare conferences.

And you can see bonds, dollars, won/dollar, U.S. stock markets, KOSPI flows and the current location of major sectors, future major inflection points, support lines/resistance lines, etc.
I'd appreciate it if you could read it carefully.

Everyone, cheer up!!!

Happy day, have a great week!!!

Thank you.

[January & 25.1Q Stock market outlook and investment strategy]
If it doesn't get worse... Q1 of 25 to ponder Upside. Feat. Trump & Domestic Political Risk

1월 KOSPI Band 2,380 ~ 2,600p,

Top 2,600p: 9x prior PER (Round Index), 0.905x PBR based on firm performance, 0.85x prior PBR (24-year average -1 standard deviation)

Primary gateway is 8.7x 12-month leading PER between 2,570 and 2,580 lines, the average level in the second half of 24 years

Bottom line 2,380p: upfront PBR 0.78x (low on August 5), upfront PBR 0.85x and 12-month upfront PER 7.86x (low on August 5, 2024) 2,413p and 2,327p, respectively

KOSPI continued to remain weak since July, falling for the sixth consecutive month (based on monthly yield). Uncertainties at home and abroad, such as semiconductor business/performance instability, U.S. economic instability and yen carry liquidation shock, Trump policy risks, and the Fed's hawkish shift to a stance, as well as domestic political risks such as martial law and impeachment, amid the absence of domestic policy. KOSPI Deep Value Continues and Prolongs

In the first half of 2025, the KOSPI is expected to end its downward trend and seek to reverse the trend following a technical rebound. We believe that it will not get worse at a time when all the bad news is reflected

The sedation of anxiety alone will seek a technical rebound, easing uncertainty and making changes visible to unexpected fundamental drivers, enabling a reversal of trends

1. Trump's 2.0 era began (President Trump took office on January 20). If the pace and intensity of policy implementation are not as fast or strong as market concerns, anxiety over Trump's risk is expected to calm down

2. Normalization of excessively hawkish U.S. monetary policy consensus (one rate cut in 25 years). Slow employment, double-check of price stability = easing monetary policy concerns, bond rates, and dollar stability

3. China's liquidity momentum, trade, and consumption momentum continue to improve. On top of that, we expect policies to improve demand and promote consumption at the end of January. The possibility of strengthening policy momentum before and after both meetings in March is effective

4. Concerns over the fourth quarter earnings season are high. Korea's exports rose 12.3 percent year-on-year in the fourth quarter (based on won, 12.48 percent in the third quarter). As expectations have been lowered due to excessive concerns, there is a possibility of surprise momentum

5. Expectations for new AI-related technologies and products at CES2025, and the possibility of Korean companies signing contracts at the JPM Healthcare Conference can be a new driver

6. Impeachment is underway following the martial law crisis. In the end, political risks in Korea will be eased. In the process, monetary and fiscal policy powers that have been absent will be introduced. Undervalued financial market in Korea will be highlighted

7. It is inevitable to continue/strengthen net purchases due to increased proportion of pension funds and domestic stocks. On top of that, foreigners can improve supply and demand. Bond rates are expected to strengthen relative to the won if domestic political risks are eased due to stabilization of the dollar

The seasonality of the January effect is not clear, but when it rises in January, the current yield is good (KOSPI and industry yield). Meanwhile, the January effect is clear for KOSDAQ and small and medium-sized stocks. Strengthen response to stocks

The KOSPI technical rebound in January marks the beginning of the first quarter's trend reversal, the first half of the KOSPI's upward trend. Daishin Securities remains at the KOSPI target of 3,000p in the first half of 25 years

Investment Strategy

Short-term fluctuations in early January are a reversal of mood. A step backward for the Ibo advancement
Undervalued Performance: Trading in major industries such as automobiles, banks, insurance, distribution, hotels/leisure, and utilities is effective

25-year profit contribution improvement, solid profit momentum + excessive fall = Semiconductors, machinery, shipbuilding, secondary batteries, pharmaceuticals/bio, internet, automobiles, defense, cosmetics/clothing, food and beverage

Effective & sustained weight expansion strategy below the 2,500-point KOSPI. 1) U.S. bond rate/dollar stabilization and 2) Non-US stimulus drive, 3) business conditions/performance anxiety calming, undervalued attractiveness, 4) continued purchase of pension funds & improved foreign supply and demand = Excessive fall & reversal of atmosphere of undervalued large-cap stocks compared to performance, upward momentum

Shipbuilding, pharmaceutical/bio, and internet industries use short-term volatility rather than pursuit due to rising stock prices, effective buying strategies