U.S stocks [2025] ISSUE arrangemet

Catalyst is needed for a big

INTP미국투자자 2025. 2. 21. 17:21
반응형

Catalyst is needed for a big change to happen. There should be a trigger.

The U.S. stock market is definitely very overvalued. But the U.S. economy is solid. Investors' investor sentiment is also very positive. Companies are doing well, too.

There needs to be a catalyst for the stock market to crash. I keep looking for that catalyst.

Would Walmart earnings call have been a trigger yesterday?
Will Nvidia's Earnings Release On The 26th Trigger?

Is there any safe way to invest other than taking a short shot in US stocks?

If the trigger doesn't come out, the U.S. stock market could go sideways all year without plunging. In the meantime, Chinese and Korean stocks could fly into the sky. Short positions held in U.S. stocks should be wiped off their fingers...

If U.S. stocks are overvalued, there is a way to invest in Chinese or Korean stocks. China and Korea are undervalued, so it is safe.

Or you can invest in U.S. bonds. The lower 4% long-term bond rate is definitely a low price. It's undervalued. Even if the price goes sideways, you can still get interest. If U.S. stocks crash, the Fed will cut interest rates drastically. And then there will be a recession, and bond prices will go up tremendously. As interest rates go down, then there will be a big return on U.S. bonds you hold. Relatively risk-free.

Gold, Bitcoin? Don't even talk. I don't treat historical highs.

Wouldn't Russell fall strongly besides Nasdaq? It's always happened for Russell to fall further. It goes up smaller and down more. But as that keeps happening over and over again, Russell doesn't have much bubble. If a small and medium-sized stock market comes one day, Russell Short is a disaster.

If you have to hit a short in the irrationally overvalued assets of the biggest bubble, you have to hit a short in Nasdaq and Bitcoin. But Nasdaq and Vico are assets that keep rising enough to be called gods, so is it right to hit a short in that time?

I have a lot of worries. You have to have strong conviction. You have to wait until you automatically think, "This is a golden opportunity." Why do you have to bet a lot of money when it's ambiguous? When it's neither here nor me, you just have to look.

320x100