Future inflation rates cannot be accurately

시장 희롱 market travesty

Both online top articles of the two business magazines now deal with the Powell message. It is difficult to lower interest rates early because inflation is not coming down as expected.

Future inflation rates cannot be accurately predicted. The policy outlook may also change because monetary policy must be adjusted as the situation unfolds. So, it is not a problem that the prediction is misaligned in itself. The problem lies elsewhere.

Nvidia was also interested in the beauty salon, which ended early Friday, but the thing that stood out was the supermicrocomputer. It had been undergoing long-term adjustments since March 8, and it had been pushed back from 38% of the time, and it had been pressed again, and it had crossed the button line today
-> Today, Korea hit a high point in March and stared at a few times to see who would be resting, but STI is the hardest among them. I think it started with Above Semiconductor, but I got caught

2. On the semiconductor side, some of the children in Group 2 are continuing to report, and some are receiving mid- to long-term adjustments for 8 to 11 days. As rumors of poor ASML performance spread in the afternoon, it's a shame today
---> When we turn the tide and supply to the big guys, we're going to attack them. Before that, we're just going to throw a little finger that we can squeeze at any time

3. If you look at today's two-top, I think it's meaningless to study stocks hard. I'm sad that all the big money goes to the level that the cobwerers made. Especially in the case of Samjeon, it's good to see that they sell gifts in the morning, stamping them at 50% in the middle, and turning them back...
---> Semiconductors seem to have better returns than studying too deeply
I'm just kidding, and the trend is that I touched the price range where I can finish the first half of the mid-term adjustment. Monitor whether it's the second half or not and plan well
SK Hanik also touched 38% of the mid-term, so let's take a good look and respond

4. In this acaripan, the Bangsan Rotem was slightly pressed deeper than the middle 38% of the previous day, so I added it, but I ended it with a skewer. But it's starting again today. I thought it would go with two cases, but the response will vary depending on which way you go

At the same time, Hanwha Aero broke through the mid-term trend line for the first time in a long time and tapped it. However, there is a possibility that this child, like many soaring stocks, may be a modus operandi. Is this the word "allan" for Ulsan people? In other words, if you fail to break 61.8% of the decline and the high point within 5 days, it can be a very burdensome position, or if you get a music bar that returns and stays at the beekeeping today, you can just book an account that can be cut off
  
These days, it seems that there is no reason to admit it, maybe because the machines are doing it. However, the leading industries and market stocks always turn first before the index hits the bottom, so let's take a look and respond one by one


Despite the absence of signs that all macro-indicators, such as inflation and employment, are going to cool down, Powell has until recently sent the message "inflation will soon be caught, interest rates will soon be lowered" too clearly. Economists have sought that argument and used all sorts of things.

The uncertainty is so great that the Fed is keeping a close eye on market conditions with all possibilities open, and will respond flexibly without being constrained by the dogma. Even if he is lucky enough, it is not without problems that inflation fell significantly in March and unemployment rose rapidly, leading to an early cut in interest rates.

Speaking monetary policy was originally introduced as a desperate measure when there were no additional policy measures at zero interest rates. At some point, as market economists interpret the central bank message as a trust by a shaman, it feels like central bankers have become a means of taking themselves and making fun of the market.

지금 두 경제지 온라인 탑 기사는 모두 파월 메시지를 다루고 있다. '예상보다 인플레이션이 잘 안 내려오고 있어서 조기에 이자율을 하락하기 어렵다'는 것이다.

미래의 물가상승률을 정확하게 예측할 수 없다. 또 통화 정책이 상황 전개에 따라 조정되어야 하기 때문에 정책 전망이 바뀔 수도 있다. 그러니까 예측이 어긋나는 것 자체는 문제가 아니다. 문제는 다른 곳에 있다.

파월은 물가상승률과 고용 등 온갖 거시지표가 냉각기로 간다는 사인이 없는데도 불구하고, 최근까지 '인플레이션 곧 잡힐 것, 금리 곧 내릴 것'이라는 메시지를 너무 분명하게 발신했다. 이코노미스트들은 그 논거를 찾아 벼라별 얘기를 동원했다.

그냥 '불확실성이 너무 커서 연준은 모든 가능성을 열어두고 시장 상황을 예의 주시하고 있으며, 도그마에 얽매이지 않고 유연하게 대응할 것이다'라고 했어야 했다. 설령 요행히 그의 예즉이 맞아 3월 물가상승율이 크게 떨어지고 실업률이 빠르게 올라가서 금리를 조기 인하하는 상황이 왔다고 해도 문제가 없는 것은 아니다.

말로 하는 통화정책은 원래 제로 금리에서 추가적인 정책 수단이 없을 때 고육지책으로 도입된 것이다. 언제부터인가 시장의 이코노미스트들이 중앙은행 메시지를 무당이 신탁 해석하듯 하니, 중앙은행가들이 스스로 취해서 시장을 희롱하는 수단이 된 느낌이다.