In the current unfriendly macro environment, in an

In the current unfriendly macro environment, in an environment where the base rate will not fall easily soon, we should choose an industry that can withstand and buy it cheaply, right?

In the case of Korean stocks, the representative stock that benefits from the high exchange rate, the current train??

Semiconductors Continuing to Improve Business Conditions??

Some bio of alienation itself for years??

~ Performance risk as interest rate cuts are delayed

The problem is that if interest rate cuts are delayed, it may be difficult for companies to meet market consensus toward the second half of this year. This is because high interest rates could slow consumption and companies' interest burden will not be lowered.

아마 파월형님도 폴 볼커 할배의 회고록을 읽었을꺼야.

다만 할배 처럼 뚝심이 쎄지 못한 성정 탓으로 봐야겠지

고인이 된 볼커옹은 자기들의 숙명을 이미 알았고 이를 돛대에 묶인 배로, 영원히 항해해야만 하는 배로 비유했다.

물가 안정이라는 망망대해를 끊임없이 항해해야 하는 숙명의 배를 몰아야 했던 선장, 폴 볼커

아마 그는 미래를 몰랐기에 금리를 두자릿수까지 올리면서까지 해서 인플레이션과의 기나긴 전쟁을 치룰 수 있었을 터. ‘Keeping at It’ 원제처럼!

이미 과거를 통해 앞으로 올 미래를 아는 파월 헝님은 아마 버티지 못할 듯. 결국 선거 전에 한두번 내리겠지!


Even if interest rates are cut one or two times by the end of this year, companies' fourth-quarter earnings are likely to fall short of market consensus, said Tiber Cosmala & Associates' Cosmala. According to FactSet, analysts expect S&P 500 companies to grow 17.7 percent year-on-year and 5.8 percent in sales in the fourth quarter of this year.

James Abbate, manager of the Center American Select Equity Fund, told MarketWatch that profit margins have continued to decline since the COVID pandemic, with many except for a handful of companies, including Nvidia, adding that "unless sales growth accelerates, it will be difficult for profit margins to rise further from their current levels."

While the earnings season is currently underway in the first quarter of this year, there is a high possibility that companies' performance prospects will be disappointing. This is because uncertainty is increasing due to the possibility of an all-out war between Israel and Iran and concerns over fixed inflation, and there is a growing risk that companies' future performance guidance will fall below market consensus.

Meanwhile, on the 17th, U.S. Bancorp will release its results before the opening bell. At 2 p.m., the Fed's economic diagnosis report, the Beige Book, will be released. Speeches by Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Governor Loretta Mester and Fed Director Michelle Borman, who are classified as hawks within the Fed, are also scheduled.