25%. Public opinion against impeachment of Yoon Suk Yeol in various New Year's p

1.
25%. Public opinion against impeachment of Yoon Suk Yeol in various New Year's polls. Compared to the 2016 Park Geun Hye impeachment, the reasons for impeachment have become more serious, but opposition has become stronger.

The opponents of martial law within the power of the people were virtually purged. This was not a decision of one unpredictable personality, but a group decision of influential political forces. In a sense, it is more surprising than 12.3 itself. If the people's power had been divided or broken up with the president like in 2016, 25% could not have come out.

Moderates are more afraid of the Democratic Party in 2025 than of the 2016 Democratic Party. The Democratic Party controls the Congress for a second term. As party leadership has been strengthened, it has transformed into a coordinated and disciplined organization. The leader's character (Moon Jae In -> Lee Jae-myung) has also changed significantly.

As the two effects overlapped, an elite-pop alliance ("anti-constitutional alliance") was formed to deny the unconstitutionality of December 3. The alliance is not one that can be easily dismantled just because Yoon Suk Yeol goes to prison. Some military officials have experienced coup d'etat once. There are too many embers that threaten the foundation of the constitution.

2.
The government cannot engage in politics of dialogue and compromise with the power of the people, which was received by the denial of civil war. However, there is no immediate way to extinguish such power. We need an approach to change the situation. There are two candidates. Breaking elite gatherings, breaking mass gatherings.

Elections are a long-term way to break the elite's confluence. However, when the government is likely to be replaced in the early presidential election, if the next government loses popularity, people's power can win the election without reflecting on civil war. As long as this worst possibility is open, it is just wishful thinking rather than a strategy.

As a short-term prescription, there is a trial to dissolve the constitution. If the power of the people continues as it is, the government would like to meet sufficient requirements for dissolution. However, if the party is dissolved with the 25 percent popular base intact, a new far-right party that goes beyond the power of the people could take over the post. It is hard to be sure because there are many variables whether the dissolution of the party can end the constitutional crisis.

3.
In the end, the 25 percent mass rally should be broken. How? Let's divide the public opinion on impeachment into four groups.

1) Confident anti-impeachment: those who are convinced that martial law was a legitimate act of governance
2) Relative anti-impeachment: People say Lee Jae-myung Democratic Party is more dangerous than martial law forces
3) Relative Pro-Impeachment: People who say martial law forces are more dangerous than the Lee Jae-myung Democratic Party
4) Confident Impeachment: People who are convinced that martial law forces are enemies of democracy

1)In addition, 25 percent of the respondents oppose impeachment. If only 25 percent of the respondents choose "relative anti-impeachment," the worst case scenario will come. If the "relative anti-impeachment" is removed within 25 percent, the Republic will become safer.

If the DP is to fulfill its heavy responsibility of overcoming the constitutional crisis, it should ease the fear of these non-mainstream voters. The goal is not to boost Democratic approval ratings. We need to change the environment for the conservative elite to recalculate. If those 25 percent shrink further, the conservative elite will seek a different path from now. That is the way to end the constitutional crisis.

4.
When do political forces buy fear? It's time to wield power arbitrarily. The problem is not the size of power, but the arbitrary exercise of power. Koreans are not afraid that the president's power is great. If it had been, the presidential system would have been a very unpopular system. However, martial law in Yoon Suk Yeol was an arbitrary exercise of extreme power, which caused serious fear and anger.

In the 2010s, conservatives used the weapon "pro-North Koreanism." The conservatives failed to control themselves and wielded the weapon on virtually every issue between the ruling and opposition parties. As the conservatives put forward the issue of publishing history textbooks under the pretext of eradicating the view of pro-North Korean history, the skepticism of the middle class exploded. The conservatives suffered an unexpected defeat in the 2016 general elections.

For the time being, the Democratic Party of Korea is a strong weapon to label any controversy over the relationship with the conservative party as "civil war sympathizers." If this leaves the Democratic Party as unrestrained as the conservatives in the 2010s, the weight of the word "civil war sympathizers" will be lightened like "pro-North Koreanism." If this happens, the forces that deny civil war will have an opportunity to downgrade the constitutional crisis into a kind of political strife.

The language of the Constitutional Guard, the language of the good and evil structure, and the language of the Holy War should not be wielded arbitrarily. Its use should be strictly restricted as a matter of the Constitution. Responsible leaders should appeal to supporters who wield this weapon excessively.

5.
Moderation is a good start. A more certain way to alleviate fears is to show reliable safeguards.

Combined forces are inherently less dangerous than independent forces. This is because there is less room for arbitrary use of force. The Democratic Party needs to look at the next government as an opportunity to form the most comprehensive coalition based on "protecting the constitution."

For the same reason, political forces in which various lines compete are less dangerous than coordinated political forces. It is necessary to evolve party democracy to achieve 'free competition for ideas' while preserving discipline and integrity. The more active competition within the Democratic Party of Korea, the less public fear of the Democratic Party, and thus the constitutional crisis is alleviated.

Thomas Friedman, an American columnist, suggested a golden straitjacket. The liberal world market restricts countries' sovereignty in trade, taxation, and currency, but the countries that accept the restrictions are trusted by the market. This helps the country prosper. Coalition politics and internal diversity ease the fear of 'exercising voluntary power' with the political version of 'golden straitjacket'.

6.
Representative Lee Jae-myung has received a first trial ruling that, if confirmed, is invalidated. The unfair issue of the prosecution prosecution process can be argued separately, but the effect of the court ruling cannot be denied.

What happens to the trial when Rep. Lee Jae-myung becomes president? Will it resume after the end of his term or will it continue during his term in office? As long as the issue remains inconclusive either way, it will be difficult for the public to become less skeptical about the arbitrary exercise of power.

For now, the first thing to do is to confirm impeachment and deal with the crisis. This question will be an important test when entering the early presidential election phase after that. Answers should be prepared to soothe the fears of those on this side and that side of the 25% border.

7.
dedication