1.
It is said that before 2014, the Ukrainian people were not hostile to Russia and did not have enough military power to threaten Russia. Even before 2014, the Ukrainian people's support for NATO membership had never exceeded the majority.
Then, through the occupation of Crimea, the Donbas War, and the 2022 full-scale invasion of Russia, almost the entire nation became hostile to Russia, and after a long war, it has the strongest military in Europe except for Russia. (There are currently approximately 900,000 troops in Ukraine, more than the United Kingdom, France, and Germany combined. Of course, it will be significantly reduced after the war, but countries that have suffered a major war will remain at a high military level for a considerable period of time during peace.)
2.
This is all Putin has brought on himself, but as a result, if the war ends as it is, a country full of hostility and vengeance against Russia, with the largest number of troops in Europe and almost all adult men with hands-on experience, will face a border with Russia.
3.
So, Russia consistently demanded three conditions in the end-of-war negotiations when the war did not begin. First, a pro-Russian regime must be established in Ukraine (so-called demilitarization), second, Ukraine's arms should be limited, like the Treaty of Versailles after World War I (demilitarization), and third, Ukraine should not be allowed to form a military alliance (neutralization).
In this way, post-war Ukraine can only end the war if it has a minimum army enough to maintain security, and pro-Russian forces like Belarus are in power and not intertwined with the West through security treaties.
4.
Russia is adamant that the three conditions are unyielding. Otherwise, Ukraine, which is full of hostility, will threaten Russia's borders. Therefore, its insistence on limiting Ukraine's diplomatic and defense sovereignty to prevent it from threatening Russia is stubborn.
And furthermore, because Ukrainians are of the same ethnic group as Russians, Putin's long-term plan is to make them a part of Russia in the long run while continuing to push for assimilation. (A former Ukrainian independence advocate, Bandera, attempted to gain independence in World War II with the help of Nazi Germany. That's why Russia seems to collectively refer to all Ukrainian nationalists as Nazis.)
5.
The problem is that these three conditions are virtually a demand for Ukraine to become a subordinate country, so Ukraine can never accept it.
However, Russia believes that the war will continue unless the condition is accepted.
During the war of the past three years, Russia has not necessarily been able to break Ukraine's will to become a fully independent country, and the West has not necessarily been able to break Russia's will to make Ukraine a subordinate country.
In fact, all cards that can be used as long as they do not cause World War III are from the West, but Russia still hasn't bent over. So, it would be very difficult to force Russia to put down those three requirements.
Putin believes that the Ukrainian people are part of the Russian people, and that Ukrainians' claim that they are a distinct people from Russia is a divisional maneuver. So, from Putin's perspective, it is not an invasion of Ukraine, but an attempt to reunify the divided people. And it seems that he believes that it is his national mission to make Ukrainians part of the Russian people again through any march of hardship.
6.
As soon as the war broke out, various negotiations were made to end the war in Ukraine, which began in 2022. However, there is a reason why negotiations have not been concluded even after three years.
Trump insists that an armistice agreement is possible right now if he presses Ukraine to accept Russia's demands. Ukraine knows that an end to the war is possible right away if it is decided to become a Russian state. If it is really going to end the war that way, why would Trump need to mediate? If it is, isn't it right to donate the minerals to Russia, which would rather be a merchant country, not to the United States?
If the war is carried out in a way that accepts all three of Russia's demands, the U.S. will not need any more U.S. support in the first place. Why does a country belonging to Russia receive U.S. support? So Trump's pressure to cut off aid if it does not receive Russia's demands will not work for Ukraine.
If Trump can't put down any of Russia's three demands, there will be no reason for Ukraine to accept Trump's mediation. But will he be able to do that? If he really can, Trump should win the Nobel Peace Prize. But frankly, I wonder if he really can communicate with Putin.
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