Since last year, everyone has been approaching

Since last year, everyone has been approaching 30-year long-term government bonds from a trading perspective rather than a strategy to hold them

Timing is the most important part of trading

The problem is that timing is not easy, so Sunmudang frequently catches people

Whether in Korea or the United States, let's focus on 3 to 10 years rather than 30 years. Also, with a generous heart that it can be held for more than 3 years

~ According to related industries on the 17th, individual investors have net purchased ETF products that invest in 30 years of U.S. government bonds worth more than 300 billion won this year. Among the top ETFs in the net purchase volume of individual investors since the beginning of the year, ETFs that invest in 30 years of U.S. government bonds include ACE U.S. 30-year Treasury Active (H) (5th), TIGER U.S. 30-year Strip Active (Synthetic H) (11th) and KBSTAR U.S. Treasury bonds (30th) Exposed (Synthetic H) (13th).

Individuals bought 152.6 billion won worth of ACE U.S. 30-year Treasury Active (Synthetic H) and KBSTAR U.S. Treasury (Synthetic H) bought 79.5 billion won and 75 billion won, respectively.

Since the beginning of the year, the yields of these products have all been negative at -7.04%, -11.01%, and -9.69%, respectively. Considering that short-term interest rates, which are large net purchases by individual investors, the U.S. NASDAQ index, and semiconductor ETFs have positive returns, domestic investors have not escaped valuation losses only in U.S. long-term bond ETFs.

ETF yields, which invest in long-term U.S. government bonds, have fallen because interest rates have risen again as expectations for an early rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed). Bond prices move contrary to interest rates, so prices fall when interest rates rise.

Concerns are growing again that the timing of the rate cut could be delayed further as the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for February, which was announced last week, far exceeded market expectations. The 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rate, which serves as a benchmark for the global bond market, rebounded to the 3.8% level at the end of last year and rose to 4.3% level again last week.

Lim Jae-kyun, a researcher at KB Securities, said, "At the FOMC in March, the Fed will freeze interest rates, and the newly announced dot plot is likely to be upgraded from the previous one." "(The market) still predicts three cuts within the year, so if the number of Fed rate cuts retreat from the March dot plot, the volatility of interest rates will increase."

However, some analysts say that the long-term bond buying strategy is effective in the event of a rebound in interest rates as the direction of the cut itself has not changed within the year.

An expert predicted, "Although there is uncertainty about the timing of the cut and the extent of the cut, the easing of the tightening within the year will be maintained, and from the second quarter, the top and bottom of the box will gradually decrease."