이제 인플레이션 영향은 상대적으로 줄어들것.

Goldman Sachs) Why can we have both the fruits of strong growth and a decline in inflation at the same time?

While GDP growth this year is expected to be much higher than the consensus, we nonetheless expect core PCE inflation to fall meaningfully, allowing the FOMC to cut three times from June. We are often asked if these predictions are inconsistent, but wouldn't inflation fall or rather rise again if growth was stronger? I don't think so for two reasons.

First, the fourth quarter GDP growth forecast for 2024 of +2.5% is well above the consensus estimate of +1.4%, but only slightly higher than the potential GDP growth forecast for 2024. The economy's supply-side potential is expected to grow somewhat faster this year than in previous years, because strong demand growth is not expected to significantly worsen the supply-demand balance, as rising immigration is driving labor force growth. In fact, labor market rigidity indicators have so far continued to fall or move sideways without rising.

Second, standard estimates of the slope of the Phillips curve suggest that even if the labor market tightens slightly again, the impact on inflation will be very small compared with the continued reversal of the supply-shortening effects, which have pushed up prices for cars and other goods, as well as the main deflationary factors expected this year, the official source inflation numbers that have fallen far behind continue to catch up with much lower leading indicators. There is always considerable uncertainty in forecasting inflation, but these two simple stories alone will make it easier to predict direction this year than in previous years.  

Jamie Dimon, head of JPMorgan Chase & Co., one of the most influential figures in the U.S. financial market, has released an annual shareholder letter.

Dimon argues that the U.S. economy, which looks solid, is creating growth in a weaker and more dangerous environment than expected.

We believe that geopolitical instability in the growth created by the government's huge debt is increasing the possibility of inflation becoming entrenched.

We analyze Dimon's shareholder annual letter and add to that the supply chain challenges seen in the current global trade market environment, and the shocking bare face of last week's strong employment report.