The background was that there was a warning from US President Joe Biden's admini

- Possibility of escalation with "Israel and the United States" and "Iran and its Gulf allies" -

Iran and Israel seem to have entered a match.

On April 11, 2024, Israeli news website Ynet wrote, "Tehran posted that it had decided to postpone or change the nature of its response to Israeli strikes on the Israeli Consulate in Damascus.

The background was that there was a warning from US President Joe Biden's administration about Iran.

Iran, however, is not listening to the U.S. warning and is vowing to retaliate against Israel.

As the situation turned out, on April 11, 2024, the U.S. Secretary of State vowed to stand by Israel.

즉 "The U.S. will stand with Israel against any threats by Iran and its proxies".

In other words, he professes that "the United States will stand with Israel against all threats from Iran and its proxies."

However, today, on April 13, 2024, "Gulf Allies" are saying a word.

즉, "Gulf Allies Warn US Not To Launch Strikes On Iran From Their Territory" 이다.

In other words, "Gulf allies are warning the United States against launching attacks on Iran on their territory."

Therefore, the future point of view is the reaction of "Israel and the United States," "Iran and its Gulf allies, and BRICS, including China and Russia.

The feeling is that there is a possibility of an escalation in the Middle East as a whole, and if it does, I think the biggest war since World War II is coming. - The current government's endless fiscal deficit policy -

On April 11, 2024, the current government released the "National Settlement Report for FY 2023".

According to the main contents, the current government's fiscal 2023 fiscal year was "87 trillion won deficit in the managed fiscal balance, which shows the actual fiscal condition."

In addition, "national debt (central and local government debt)" was "1,126.7 trillion won", and the national debt ratio was "50.4%" of GDP, exceeding the "50% range" for the first time.

However, the more important part is the data of the Ministry of Strategy and Finance (hereinafter referred to as the Ministry of Strategy and Finance).

According to the data from the Ministry of Economy and Finance, the fiscal deficit from May 10, 2022, when the Yoon Suk Yeol government was launched, to 2027 is predicted (see attached data from the Ministry of Strategy and Finance).

As a result, Korea's national debt in 2027 is "1,417.6 trillion won," and the national debt ratio continues to rise to "53.0%.

In other words, the government will continue to pay for the lack of tax revenue due to tax reduction policies such as the tax reduction for the rich.

What a ridiculous government.

Therefore, the IMF also ordered a sound fiscal policy from the Republic of Korea.

The new 22nd National Assembly is likely to have a lot of work to do.


In fact, I am one of the most pessimistic about environmental issues. Human pursuit of convenience is the root of environmental issues, but even those who applauded when they insisted on considering the environment turn their backs on them when they ask them to endure the inconvenience for the environment.

It's comfortable to think about it this way. Can you give up delivery food for the environment? Can you give up on long-distance travel during the holiday season for the environment? Can you give up on imported food delivered from long distances for the environment? Can you give up direct overseas purchases for the environment?

In addition, if economic logic is included in this, it becomes even more difficult. If wine is given up for the environment, wine distributors will go bankrupt. Giving up air conditioning makes it difficult for home appliance companies. Stopping overseas travel during the holiday season makes it difficult for airlines.

The more convenient and prosperous humanity becomes, the more the environment will deteriorate. Technological progress enough to solve this terrible paradox is far off, and even if it is realized, it will spread under a thorough "disbalance," so it is not possible to immediately benefit from advanced technology, but in most countries where a much larger population is engaged in economic activities, we still have no choice but to watch its deterioration accelerate.

Well, it's like a dog's death. I honestly don't even know if my generation can die 'safely'.

[장 중 시황] 원/달러 환율 급등 & 외국인 선물매도 압박 가중 [FICC리서치부 전략/시황: 이경민 / 김정윤]

- KOSPI는 외국인, 기관 순매도세로 약 -0.8% 약세. 미국 3월 PPI가 둔화되고 고용시장은 여전히 견조한 모습을 보임. 그러나, 이전 금리 인하 지연 추세에 미치는 영향은 제한적. 달러 강세가 지속되며 장 중 1,370원을 돌파. 외국인 수급에 부정적인 요인으로 작용. 한국 총선 이후 금융당국의 정책 가능성 실현 우려로 밸류업 업종 약세 지속

- 아시아 증시는 전반적으로 약세. 홍콩 항셍지수가 -1.7%로 가장 크게 하락했고, 중국 상해종합지수는 보합세 양상
  
- 원/달러 환율은 전날보다 +10.0원 상승한 1374.1원으로 거래. 미국 금리 인하 후퇴 우려가 확산되며 강달러 현상 지속

- 업종별로는 의료정밀(+3.2%) 강세. 특히, 디아이(+10.6%)가 HBM에 필요한 검사 장비를 납품하여 AI 반도체 밸류체인으로 수혜받아 전일에 이어 급등. 뒤이어, 기계(+2.3%) 강세. 마이크론과 반도체 장비 공급 계약으로 한미반도체(+5.4%)가 업종 주가 상승 주도. 두산로보틱스(+5.5%)도 강세 기여. 반면, 전기가스업(-4.6%), 보험(-4.3%) 약세. 한국 총선 여파로 밸류업 업종 모멘텀 부재한 것이 주된 요인. 그중 한국전력(-5.4%)은 최근 상승한 주가로 차익실현 매물 출회되어 하락폭 확대. DB손해보험(-7.9%), 삼성생명(-4.7%) 등 주가 하락으로 약세 지속. 이어서 운수창고(-2.5%) 약세 전환. 저가매수세 유입으로 상승한 HMM(-2.3%)과 지정학적 위기 고조로 상승한 흥아해운(-17.0%) 차익실현 매물 출회

- KOSDAQ은 개인 순매수세에 힘입어 약 +0.4% 강세. 업종별로 반도체(+1.8%) 강세. 금리 부담으로 금주 초반 반도체 업종 약세를 보였지만, 반도체 수출 실적 호조와 한미반도체의 마이크론 수주 계약이 긍정적으로 작용. 리노공업(+8.0%), 가온칩스(+6.7%), 예스티(+6.7%) 등 주가 상승 기여. 뒤이어 기타서비스(+1.6%), 제약(+1.6%) 강세. 에이프릴바이오(+5.6%), 바이넥스(+10.1%), 삼천당제약(+7.5%) 등 주가 상승 기여. 반면, 일반전기전자(-2.3%), 종이,목재(-1.4%) 약세

[대신증권 투자전략/시황 텔레그램 채널]

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