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이란이랑 이스라엘은 싸운다고 했다가

안싸운다고 했다가 ㅋㅋ 정신없게하는군요

Every Monday, we publish data in the form of weekly outlook through PPT.

I wrote it by myself and made it around 50p with issue material, not chartbook format, so it takes a lot of time...

And it takes time to approve... Still, I'm trying to upload it before the market starts on Monday, so please understand.

If you go to my Telegram channel (Instead, Strategic Directives), you can see the uploaded material every Monday around 9 o'clock. I have a lot of my impersonation accounts on Telegram... The official channel is instead one strategic straightforward.

I'll write down the channel link in the comments.

I'll summarize this week's key points, prospects, and weekly investment strategies.

 Strategies and tactics have different meanings, but they are confusing terms. From an economic/investment point of view, strategies are comprehensive, long-term investment methods in large flows, and tactics are practical and short-term means and methods

In other words, strategy is a concept larger than tactics, and tactics are a concept smaller than strategies
Successful strategies will only be possible if the success of detailed tactics is accumulated

 Daishin Securities' Q2 strategy is to buy when adjusted. First half of Q2; expected to increase volatility in global financial markets. Propose defensive investment strategies

Watch for optimism in the second quarter through the April forecast, mentioning the possibility of an April adjustment. 1) Shrinking liquidity environment, 2) Slowing U.S. price instability and China's real indicator momentum, 3) Passing the peak of expectations for South Korea's earnings,
4) Reasons for the possibility of a shift in selling foreign futures, etc. Increasing uncertainties in monetary policy following the CPI shock in March. Strengthening the Risk Off signal in the second quarter, maintaining/strengthening vigilance on volatility in the stock market

Propose an active weighting strategy below the 2,600 KOSPI level in the mid-to-late 2Q. Expectations and visualization of the simultaneous recovery of economic, liquidity, and monetary policy momentum in the second half of the year

 Short-term, April tactics include 'reducing the proportion of industries/categories that have risen significantly above the 2,750 KOSPI level, concentrating short-term circulation sales'

When it comes to tactics, financial markets (price variables) and psychological changes are also important. In terms of tactics, attention is paid to the strength of the retreat in expectations of interest rate cuts after the CPI shock in March

In December, the FOMC implied interest rate is close to 5%. It is almost 40 basis points above the Fed's 24-year dot plot of 4.6%. Although it is inevitable to raise the dot plot in the future (retreating the number of rate cuts),

The market is showing vigilance and anxiety about this. In the short term, expectations for a rate cut have retreated radically in the past few days, so there is a good chance of a reaction

In fact, monetary policy uncertainty calms down and bond rates fall slightly after confirming the PPI in March, the sluggish consumer sentiment index at the University of Michigan in April, and the rise in inflation forecasts after the CPI shock in March last week

Expectations for a rate cut will return to the Fed's dot plot, stabilizing, according to the results of U.S. real indicators this week (26th) PCE results

 Key short-term support in terms of valuation and technical analysis at the KOSPI 2,600 to 2,650 level. Need to strengthen short-term trading response around 2,650 level

 Weekly response: Continuing circulation. Maintaining the expansion of the proportion of secondary batteries (materials) & keeping the door open using Internet volatility

Circular sales by industry/category are in progress. Industries that have not been able to ride on the circulation cycle include IT home appliances, steel, chemicals, displays, Internet, etc

Among them, attention is paid to secondary batteries (materials) such as IT home appliances and chemicals, and Internet industries. 1) High price merit and 2) Visualization of recovery in earnings outlook. 12 months ahead of EPS increase.

3) Sudden selling of foreigners' supply and demand also subsides, and some low-priced purchases are detected. It is expected that growth stocks will rebound if the U.S. bond transitions to stability from 4.5% on 10-year U.S. bonds and 106p on U.S. dollar

Maintaining the expansion of the proportion of secondary batteries (materials) last week and keeping a good eye on the street using Internet fluctuations

 Check Point 1. U.S. retail sales (15th) and mining industry production (16th) in March

Retail sales in the U.S. rose 0.4% month-on-month in March, slowing from 0.6% in February, but expected to continue to grow positively. Excluding automobiles, it improved 0.5% month-on-month and expanded growth from 0.3% in February

Mining and manufacturing production rose 0.4% month-on-month in March, an improvement from 0.1% in February. Facility utilization rate is also expected to recover to 78.5% from 78.3% in February

Reconfirming the structure of economic recovery in the manufacturing sector and slowdown in service sector/consumption. If retail sales fall below expectations, such as the ISM service sector shock in March, anxiety over the number and timing of rate cuts is expected to calm down

 Check Point 2. China's GDP growth rate and real indicators (16th)

Although it is slower than the first quarter's GDP growth of 4.8% (expected year-on-year) and 5.2% in the fourth quarter of 23, it is better than the previous market expectation of 4.3%. Retail sales increased from 5.5% to 5% in January to February,

Mining and industrial production in March is also expected to slow down from 7% to 6% in January to February. Retail sales base effect inflows of more than 7%p. Confidence in China's economic recovery is strengthened even if it falls slightly below the current consensus. The yuan's weakness calms down = the won/dollar exchange rate stabilizes. If retail sales and mining production are weaker than expected in the aftermath of the base effect, pressure on the yuan's weakness and volatility in stock markets are inevitable

 Check Point 3. Earnings Season

Earnings season expectations valid. Expect profit improvement for first time since January 2022 based on BofA fund manager survey at the end of March

The key is whether performance that meets the high eye level will follow in an environment where cost burdens are high, such as rising raw material prices and prolonged high-interest rates

JPMorgan revealed better-than-expected quarterly results. However, stock price plunged 6.47% due to a 4% (q-q) decline in net interest income. Citigroup and Wells Fargo also fell. This suggests that the market is looking up

KOSPI's earnings expectations peak, non-semiconductor industry earnings outlook clearly downgraded

PS.

I think the increased volatility in global financial markets due to Iran's attack on Israel is limited.

1) casualties 0.2) If Iran does not act on Israel, the attack will be over. 3) Retirement of Netanyahu's retaliatory attack plan on Iran

There's a long story and story to tell, but... I think it's a similar situation to the one that created an atmosphere where China was going to invade Taiwan right now in all the media after Taiwan's presidential election.

Rather, it is time to see if it will trigger a drop in oil prices and a reversal in the stock market.

Israeli stocks opened on Sunday, falling as low as -1%, before closing at +0.27%.

I hope you have a happy day and a great week.  

Thank you.