주말 동안 글로벌 금융시장을 뒤흔들었던 이란

[장 중 시황] 중동 리스크 일단락. KOSPI 2,650선 사수작전 [FICC리서치부 전략/시황: 이경민 / 김정윤]

- 주말 동안 글로벌 금융시장을 뒤흔들었던 이란 – 이스라엘 사태는 일단락되는 양상. 이란이 이스라엘을 공격했지만, 인명피해는 없었고, 바이든 대통령의 설득으로 네타냐후 이스라엘 총리가 이란에 대한 보복 공습을 철회 결정. 이란은 이미 이스라엘이 행동을 취하지 않으면 이번 공격이 마지막임을 언급한 바 있음

- 잠재적 리스크로 상존할 수 밖에 없지만, 최악의 상황으로 치닫을 가능성 현저히 낮아짐. 서로 보복공습을 반복하거나 전면전으로 전개는 당분간 없을 것으로 예상. 과도했던 중동발 리스크에 대한 공포심리 진정될 전망

- 또다른 불안감은 통화정책에 대한 것. 지난주 3월 CPI를 계기로 금리인하에 대한 컨센서스는 급격히 후퇴. 한 때 9월 금리인하, 25년 금리인하가 컨센서스로 형성될 전망. 12월 FOMC 내재금리는 4.9%를 넘어서며 연준의 점도표(4.6%)대비 30bp 이상 괴리율 확대. 연준이 24년 점도표를 5%로 상향조정하지 않는 한 현재 시장의 통화정책에 대한 공포심리는 다소 과도하다고 생각

- 따라서 지난주 후반 PPI 반등, Core PPI 예상 상회, 미시간대 소비자신뢰지수 내 인플레이션 전망 상향조정 등에도 불구하고 기준금리 컨센서스는 일부 정상화. 현재 컨센서스는 7월, 12월 금리인하 예상. 확률 레벨을 감안할 때 추가적인 안도감 유입, 투자심리 정상화 전개 예상

- 이번주 미국 소매판매(15일), 광공업생산(16일) 결과 체크. 예상보다 부진할 경우 오히려 기준금리 컨센서스가 정상화되는데 힘을 실어줄 것. Bad Is Good국면 전개 가능성 높다고 판단. 반면, 중국 실물지표(16일)는 둔화가 불가피하지만, 예상치에 부합하거나 양호할 때 긍정적인 변화 예상. 중국은 Good Is Good 국면 전개 가능

- 지난 주말 미국증시 하락 충격에 KOSPI 2,640선까지 밀렸지만, 이내 2,650선 회복, 등락 반복. 2,650선 전후에는 12개월 선행 PER 10.54배, 선행 PBR 0.9배, 확정실적 기준 PBR 0.91배가 위치, 이는 24년 평균 밸류에이션 수준. 기술적 분석 측면에서도 1월 저점 이후 상승폭의 38.2%(2,645p) 되돌림 수준

- 이번주 통화정책 우려가 정상화되는 과정에서 채권금리, 달러 안정 예상. 성장주 중심의 반등세 기대. 특히, 그동안 철저히 소외받아왔던 대표적인 성장주인 2차전지, 인터넷 주목. 오늘 장 중 흐름에 있어서도 단기 급락했던 저PBR주들의 반등과 2차전지 상승반전이 눈에 띔. 역발상 투자전략이 필요한 시점

- KOSPI는 외국인, 기관 순매도세로 약 -0.7% 약세. 14일 이란의 이스라엘 본토 공격으로 중동 지정학적 위기 고조. 이스라엘은 공격을 성공적으로 방어하면서 재보복 의사를 밝히지 않음. 그러나, WTI는 85.66달러로 거래되며 상승세 지속. 투자자의 위험자산 선호 심리를 약화하는 요인. 외국인 투자자 순매도세 지속이 하방압력으로 작용했지만, 일부 유가 관련 업종이 강세 전환하여 하방 지지. 또한 1분기 실적 컨센서스가 긍정적인 일부 업종 강세 전개

- 아시아 증시는 중국 상해종합지수(+1.2%)와 인도네시아 IDX종합지수(+0.5%)를 제외하고 약세. 대만 가권지수와 일본 니케이지수가 각각 -1.2%, 1.0% 기록
  
- 원/달러 환율은 전날보다 +7.6원 상승한 1,383.0원으로 거래. 미국 금리 인하 후퇴 우려와 더불어 이스라엘-이란 갈등이 악화되어 달러 강세. 1,380원을 돌파하여 1년 5개월만에 최고치

- 업종별로는 전기가스업(+3.3%) 강세. 이란의 이스라엘 본토 공격으로 중동 지정학적 리스크 확대. 유가 강세가 이어졌고, 그중 대성에너지(+7.2%), 한국가스공사(+5.3%) 급등. 다음으로 운수장비(+1.1%) 강세. 기아(+3.4%)가 1분기 호실적을 전망하며 주가 상승 주도. 한국항공우주(+3.3%)는 브라질 항공기 업체와 1조원 규모의 수주 계약 체결로 강세. 매크로 이슈로 인해 경기방어주 성격인 음식료품(+0.9%)도 강세. 호실적을 전망한 CJ제일제당(+3.5%)과 빙그레(+4.6%)가 주가 상승 기여. 반면, 전기,전자(-2.0%) 약세. 솔루스첨단소재(-7.7%), 신성이엔지(-5.0%) 등 중동 위기로 투자심리가 약화된 외국인 투자자들이 순매도 전환하여 하락세. 뒤이어, 특별한 모멘텀이 부재한 종이,목재(-1.3%) 약세. 제조업(-1.1%)도 최근 급등한 주가로 인해 HD현대일렉트릭(-4.0%), 가온전선(-3.4%) 차익실현 매물 출회하여 약세

- KOSDAQ은 외국인, 기관 순매도세로 약 -1.0% 약세. 업종별로 방송서비스(+0.6%) 강세. 1분기 호실적을 전망하는 CJ ENM(+1.8%)이 주가 상승 주도. 뒤이어, 제약(+0.5%) 강세. 특히, 유바이오로직스(+14.3%)가 콜레라 백신 공급 부족 우려로 급등. 반면, 금일 이차전지 관련주 약세. 엔켐(-8.6%), 에코앤드림(-9.1%), 중앙첨단소재(-7.7%) 주가 하락으로 화학(-3.6%) 약세. 이어서 종이,목재(-3.1%) 약세. 상장폐지로 주가가 급등한 대양제지(-27.1%)의 차익실현 매물 출회가 주가 하락 주도

[대신증권 투자전략/시황 텔레그램 채널]

- Iran - Israel crisis ends after weekend of rocking global financial markets. Iran attacked Israel, no casualties, and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu decided to withdraw retaliatory airstrikes against Iran after President Biden convinced him to do so. Iran has already mentioned that the attack will be the last if Israel does not act

- It has no choice but to exist as a potential risk, but the likelihood of reaching the worst is significantly lowered. It is expected that there will be no repeated retaliatory attacks or all-out wars with each other for the time being. Fear of excessive risks from the Middle East is expected to calm down

- Another source of concern is monetary policy. Consensus on interest rate cuts has retreated sharply following the CPI in March last week. A consensus on a 25-year rate cut is expected to once be formed in September. The FOMC implied interest rate exceeded 4.9 percent in December, widening the gap by more than 30 basis points compared to the Fed's dot plot (4.6 percent). Unless the Fed raises its 24-year dot plot to 5 percent, fear of the current market's monetary policy is somewhat excessive

- Therefore, despite a rebound in PPI late last week, exceeding expectations for a Core PPI, and raising the outlook for inflation in the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index, the consensus on the benchmark interest rate is partially normalized. The current consensus is that interest rate cuts are expected in July and December. Given the probability level, additional relief inflows and normalization of investor sentiment are expected

- Check the results of U.S. retail sales (15th) and mining industry production (16th) this week. If it is weaker than expected, it will help the consensus on the base rate normalize. We believe that Bad Is Good is likely to develop. On the other hand, China's real indicators (16th) are inevitably slowing down, but positive changes are expected when they meet or are good. China can develop a Good Is Good phase

- Last weekend, the KOSPI fell to 2,640 due to the shock of the U.S. stock market's decline, but soon recovered to 2,650 and repeated fluctuations. Around the 2,650 mark, 12 months ahead PER is 10.54 times, the preceding PBR 0.9 times, and the PBR 0.91 times based on fixed performance, which is the 24-year average valuation level. In terms of technical analysis, 38.2% (2,645p) of the rise since the low point in January has been reversed

- Bond interest rates, dollar stabilization expected amid normalization of monetary policy concerns this week. Expectations for a rebound centered on growth stocks. In particular, attention is paid to secondary batteries and the Internet, which are representative growth stocks that have been thoroughly marginalized. In today's market trend, the rebound of low PBR stocks, which had plummeted for a short period of time, and the reversal of the rise of secondary batteries were noticeable. Time for a reverse idea investment strategy

- KOSPI weakened about -0.7% due to net selling of foreigners and institutions. Iran's attack on mainland Israel on the 14th escalates the geopolitical crisis in the Middle East. Israel has successfully defended the attack and has not expressed its intention to retaliate. However, WTI continues to rise, trading at $85.66. Factors weakening investors' preference for risky assets. Continued net selling of foreign investors was a downward pressure, but some oil-related industries turned bullish. Also, some sectors with positive first-quarter earnings consensus have strengthened

- Asian stock markets are weak except for China's Shanghai Composite Index (+1.2 percent) and Indonesia's IDX Composite Index (+0.5 percent). Taiwan's household index and Japan's Nikkei Index recorded -1.2 percent and 1.0 percent, respectively
  
- The local currency was trading at 1,383.0 won against the U.S. dollar, up +7.6 won from the previous day. The dollar strengthened to surpass 1,380 won, the highest in a year and five months, as the Israel-Iran conflict worsened along with concerns about a retreat in U.S. interest rate cuts

- Stronger electricity and gas industry (+3.3 percent). Iran's attack on mainland Israel increased geopolitical risks in the Middle East. Oil prices continued to strengthen, with Daesung Energy (+7.2 percent) and Korea Gas Corp. (+5.3 percent) surging. Next, transportation equipment (+1.1 percent) strengthening. Kia (+3.4 percent) leads the rise in stock prices, forecasting good first-quarter earnings. Korea Aerospace (+3.3 percent) is also strong due to the signing of an order contract worth 1 trillion won with a Brazilian aircraft manufacturer. Food and beverage (+0.9 percent), which are the main economic defense stocks, are also strong due to macro issues. CJ Cheil Jedang (+3.5 percent) and Binggrae (+4.6 percent), which forecast good results, contributed to the rise in stock prices. On the other hand, weak electricity and electronics (-2.0 percent). Foreign investors, whose investor sentiment has weakened due to the Middle East crisis, such as Solus Advanced Materials (-7.7 percent) and Shinseong ENG (-5.0 percent), turned to net sale and fell. Subsequently, paper and wood (-1.3 percent) with no special momentum are weak. Manufacturing (-1.1 percent) has also been on the market for profit-taking due to the recent surge in stock prices

- KOSPI weakened -1.0% due to net selling of foreigners and institutions. Broadcasting services (+0.6%) strengthened by industry. CJ ENM (+1.8%), which forecasts good first-quarter earnings, led the rise in stock prices. Pharmaceutical (+0.5%) strengthened. In particular, UBiologics (+14.3%) surged on concerns of a shortage of cholera vaccines. On the other hand, secondary battery stocks weakened today. Chemical (-3.6%) weakened due to falling shares of ENCEM (-8.6%), Eco & Dream (-9.1%), and Central High-tech Materials (-7.7%). Paper and wood (-3.1%) weakened. Ocean Paper (-27.1%) led by a drop in profit-taking sales led by stock prices

[Investment strategy of Daishin Securities / Telegram channel]


Last week, Stanford's AI index 2024 version was announced, but it was released today.

The fifth summary is even more heartbreaking. I was arguing that Korea should take the lead in standardizing the content... No matter how advanced the proposal is, I am not ready to evaluate and accept it, so the problem is that it is a pearl necklace around the pig's neck. Han Sang-ki Jung-Woo Ha

Number 9, Science and Technology is something to be seriously considered. Everyone is preparing for regulation, but it would be too late for Korea to react to regulatory allergies.  

It seems to be a new attempt to introduce AI achievements in science and medicine by devoting five chapters separately.

Top 10 Takeaways...
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1. AI outperforms humans in some tasks, but not all. AI outperforms humans on several benchmarks, including image classification, visual reasoning, and English understanding. However, it lags behind on more complex tasks, such as competitive-level mathematics, visual common-sense reasoning, and planning.

2. The industry continues to dominate state-of-the-art AI research. In 2023, the industry produced 51 remarkable machine learning models, while academia produced only 15. In addition, in 2023, there were a high of 21 remarkable models obtained through industry-academia cooperation.

3. Frontier models become even more expensive. According to AI Index estimates, the cost of training state-of-the-art AI models has reached unprecedented levels. For example, OpenAI's GPT-4 used about $78 million worth of computing to train, while Google's Gemini Ultra spent $191 million on computing.

4. The U.S. leads China, the EU, and the U.K. as the main sources of the best AI models. In 2023, 61 notable AI models were launched by U.S.-based institutions, far surpassing 21 in the European Union and 15 in China.

5. There is a severe lack of robust, standardized evaluations of LLM responsibility. A new study by AI Index has revealed a significant lack of standardization in responsible AI reporting. Major developers, including OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic, primarily test their models on a variety of responsible AI benchmarks. These practices complicate efforts to systematically compare the risks and limitations of top AI models.

6. Generative AI investments are surging. Despite the decline in overall private investment in AI last year, funding for generative AI surged to reach $25.2 billion, nearly 10 times higher than in 2022. Major players in the generative AI space, including OpenAI, Anthropic, Hugging Face, and Inflection, have reported significant funding rounds.

7. The data are as follows. AI increases workers' productivity and improves the quality of their work. In 2023, several studies have evaluated the impact of AI on labor, suggesting that it allows workers to complete tasks faster and improve the quality of their outcomes. The research has also shown the potential of AI to bridge the skill gap between low- and high-skilled workers. However, other studies warn that using AI without proper supervision can degrade performance.

8. Scientific advances are further accelerated thanks to AI. In 2022, AI began to advance scientific discovery. However, in 2023, even more important scientific-related AI applications were released, from AlphaDev, which makes algorithmic alignment more efficient, to GNoME, which promotes the material discovery process.

9. The number of AI regulations in the United States is increasing rapidly. The number of AI-related regulations in the United States has increased significantly in the past year and the last five years. The number of AI-related regulations increased from one in 2016 to 25 in 2023. Last year alone, the total number of AI-related regulations increased by 56.3%.

10. People around the world are more aware and more nervous about the potential impact of AI. A survey by Ipsos found that over the past year, the percentage of people who think AI will have a dramatic impact on their lives in the next three to five years has increased from 60% to 66%. Furthermore, 52% expressed anxiety about AI products and services, up 13 percentage points from 2022. In the U.S., 52% of Americans say they feel more concerned about AI than expected, according to Pew data. That's up from 37% in 2022.

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The key highlights from each chapter of the "AI Index Report 2024" are as follows (summarized in ChatGPT)

Chapter 1: Research and Development

1. The industry continues to dominate state-of-the-art AI research.
2. More foundation models and more open foundation models.
3. Frontier models become much more expensive.
4. The U.S. leads China, the EU, and the U.K. as major sources of the best AI models.
5, The number of AI patents is increasing rapidly.
6. China is dominating AI patents.
7. Open source AI research is exploding.
8. The number of papers related to AI continues to grow.

Chapter 2: Technical Performance

1. AI outperforms humans in some tasks, but not all.
2. Here comes the multimodal AI.
3. More difficult benchmarks appear.
4. Better AI means better data, which means better AI.
5. It contains human evaluation.
6. Thanks to LLM, the robot has become more flexible.
7. Further technical research on agent AI.
8.Closed LLMs perform significantly better than open LLMs.

Chapter 3: Responsible AI

1. There is a serious lack of robust, standardized evaluation of LLM responsibility.
2. Political deepfakes are easy to generate but difficult to detect.
3. The researchers found more complex vulnerabilities in LLM.
4. Risk from AI is becoming a concern for companies around the world.
5. LLM can print copyrighted materials.
6. AI developers scored low in terms of transparency according to their research results.
7. Extreme AI risks are difficult to analyze.
8. The number of AI accidents continues to increase.
9. ChatGPT is politically biased.

Chapter 4: Economy

1. Generative AI investment is increasing rapidly.
2. The U.S., which is already a leader, is further ahead in AI private investment.
3. There are fewer AI jobs in the United States and around the world.
4. AI reduces costs and increases profits.
5. While overall private investment in AI decreased again, the number of AI companies that received new funding increased.
6. The adoption of AI organizations is becoming more active.
7. China is dominating industrial robots.
8. Diversity of robot installation.
9. The data is as follows: AI increases the productivity of workers and improves the quality of their work.
10. Fortune 500 companies are starting to talk a lot about AI, especially generative AI.

Chapter 5: Science and Medicine

1. Thanks to AI, the development of science is further accelerated.
2/ AI helps medicine make significant progress.
3. A highly knowledgeable medical AI has arrived.
4. The FDA is approving more and more AI-related medical devices.

Chapter 6: Education

1. The number of CS bachelor graduates in the U.S. and Canada continues to grow, the number of new CS master's graduates is relatively stagnant, and the number of PhD graduates is growing modestly.
2. The pace of moving AI PhDs into the industry is getting faster.
3. There is less transition of academic talent from industry to academia.
4. CS education in the United States and Canada is becoming less international.
5. More U.S. high school students take CS courses, but access issues remain.
6. AI-related degree programs are increasing worldwide.
7. The UK and Germany lead the production of graduate students in European Informatics, CS, CE and IT.

Chapter 7: Policy and Governance

1. The number of AI regulations in the United States is increasing rapidly.
2. The U.S. and the European Union push for groundbreaking AI policy measures.
3. AI is attracting the attention of U.S. policymakers.
4. Policymakers around the world cannot stop talking about AI.
5. More and more regulators are turning their attention to AI.

Chapter 8: Diversity

1. Bachelor's, Master's, and Doctor's CS students in the United States and Canada are becoming more ethnically diverse.
2. At all educational levels, there is a significant gender gap among European Informatics, CS, CE, and IT graduates.
3. K-12 CS education in the United States is becoming more diverse, reflecting changes in gender and race representation.

Chapter IX Public Opinion

1. People around the world are more aware of the potential impact of AI and are more nervous.
2. AI sentiment in Western countries continues to be low but slowly improving.
3. The public is pessimistic about the economic impact of AI.
4. Demographic differences emerge regarding AI optimism.
5. ChatGPT is widely known and widely used.

링크: https://aiindex.stanford.edu/report/