An article that summarizes a more serious situation than I thought
* The stock market rally, which hit a mid-term low in October 2022, is unlikely to end in a year and a half. The MDD of the KOSPI and KOSDAQ stood at -6.7 percent and -8.7 percent, respectively, as of Friday's close, which is low (but painful) to say that the upward trend is reversed
※MDD (Maximum Drawdown): Maximum loss compared to high point
*The key is whether the {artificial intelligence + semiconductor} combination, which led the rise, will run again after adjustment, or whether there will be a change in leading industries. Past patterns show that the human association rises again after adjustment... We want to weigh in on the fact that there are so many stocks in the U.S. or Korea that have lost stock prices to Hwaseong with ignorance, so we don't know what logic these stocks can return to the upward trend
* Assuming that the labor union does not return to the upward trend, the subsequent path is likely to be either (1) the index reversed to the downward trend, or (2) the individual stocks/industries hit as the index created the box. It would be fun to see the appearance of (2), but it seems to be only wishful thinking because I have never seen the path (2) continue in the U.S. market. Raw material-related stocks and ETFs look good, but their presence is insignificant to replace the labor union
*The most burdensome thing these days is not the Iran-Israel clash, but interest rates. If interest rates fail to stabilize and rise again, all logic explaining the stock market becomes meaningless. I think this is also unlikely, but considering that the outlook for interest rates at the end of last year was all badly wrong...
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