연준이 생각보다 고금리를 오래 유지할 수 있어보입니다

There are many people who think that growth will slow down and inflation will be prolonged. Because I've been making a lot of copies of the money... It's a big problem

연준이 생각보다 고금리를 오래 유지할 수 있어보입니다

지금은 금리인하를 하게되면... 물가가 엄청난 속도로 폭발할것같네요

There are still strong expectations that the U.S. economy is hot, with second-quarter GDP growth estimated by the Atlanta Fed at a 4.2% range, but many leading indicators have recently pointed to the opposite.

From new orders for ISM's leading indicator, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), to the consumer confidence index on the conference board, and today's consumer sentiment index at University of Michigan, consumers who play a pivotal role in the U.S. economy are getting tired of high interest rates and high prices.

Today's consumer sentiment index is now down to a six-month low, well below expectations of 76.0 (67.4). That's important data signaling a slowdown in growth, as 80% of the U.S. economy goes to consumption.

In general, slowing growth means falling prices. Of course, it is because inflationary pressure decreases when demand decreases. Recent data points to the opposite. Following the surge in the corporate price index in ISM's PMI indicators, consumers also forecast that short-term inflation will surge much higher (3.5 percent) than expected in the future.

This data suggests that prices can rise even if growth slows. Concerns about so-called stagflation are back on the market. Stagflation, where salaries are decreasing but prices are rising, is literally the worst for the economy.

Of course, it is difficult to say that stagflation has become visible, but market concerns are sufficient to close the market mixed. The Fed is now complicated in its calculations. The driving force behind high interest rates so far has been solid growth, which could become difficult in the future.

The problem is that prices can continue to rise despite slowing growth. It's too early to worry about stagflation, but since the role of the market is that, today's rise in interest rates reflects this.