When will the crisis be resolved?

[3.13 million units vs. 2,382 units] When will the crisis be resolved?

전기차시장이 계속 안좋은이슈가 많네요

음... 다시 빨리 판매량이 늘어나서 미세먼지를 해결해주었으면 하는...바램입니다

그나저나 중국공장이 다시 돌아가니까 먼지가 또 점졈 만들어지네요... 어휴 ㅠㅠ


Recently, the so-called reverse growth of electric vehicles is a hot topic, but in fact, if you look at the global market as a whole, including China, the growth of electric vehicles is lower than expected, and the growth itself remains unchanged.

The problem is hydrogen cars. Hydrogen cars are being introduced in the Chinese market, but only 2,382 units of hydrogen cars were sold in the January-March period worldwide. The figure is down 36 percent year-on-year.

The number of electric vehicles sold worldwide in the first quarter, which people are concerned about declining growth, was 3.13 million units (including plug-in hybrids), up 20% year-on-year.

The strategy focused on hydrogen cars obviously failed. Just as the strategies of the three Korean battery companies that ignored LFP batteries failed, so did the hydrogen car strategy of the current car. It can fail, but what will happen to the organization if no lessons are learned?

The PEM fuel cell stack, the core facility of hydrogen vehicles, has a very short lifespan, which should be modified to focus on hydrogen buses or hydrogen commercial vehicles. Commercial vehicles must basically use more than 1 million km, but the life of the existing stack is less than one-third, but the price is still burdensome. For Nexo, the replacement cost of the stack is 40 million won and the warranty life is 170,000 km. It is difficult to use this for commercial vehicles, and the improvement work is not progressing well.

Due to material engineering limitations, PEM fuel cells' high price and short lifespan cannot be improved easily. The strategy to operate commercial hydrogen vehicles by making cheap green hydrogen with abundant renewable energy also has a long way to go. It is difficult to attract infrastructure investors because there are many alternative technologies such as biodiesel, LBG (liquefied biogas), and high-density batteries.

In the long run, China will solve the problem of hydrogen commercial vehicles, but this is a serious problem if the initial investment and technology development, like electric vehicle batteries and ESS, are made with Korean taxpayers' money and industrialization and global market targeting are done by China. Since 2018 to date, subsidies for the supply of hydrogen cars in Korea have been worth billions of dollars, so how should we set our direction in the future?