Stock investment was the exclusive property of some aristocrats and wealthy upper classes before 1900. So why did the stock market explode in the 1920s? The invention of the telegraph, telephone, and ticker machine explains why. The market price could be checked in real-time through a ticker machine, and orders could be placed directly to an intermediary over the phone. The general public had access to stock investment thanks to these technologies, and the explosive increase in investor numbers created a huge bubble. But bubbles eventually burst. The Great Depression is what we call it.
Why did the IT bubble happen in 2000? Until then, I placed orders using paper and pens on the phone or at the guest house. However, with the invention of the Internet, the emergence of the **HTS (Home Trading System)** made it possible to check the market price and buy and sell at home. In the mid-to-late 1990s, anyone could participate in investment through HTS, and in Korea, even college students created a stock investment club and sold them by installing hero doors on PCs. This new environment exploded the number of stock investors, eventually forming a bubble. This is called the dot-com bubble.
After the 2010s, the stock market entered the mobile era. The popularization of **MTS (Mobile Trading System)**, which can be sold on smartphones, has made investment accessibility easier. In addition, with the advent of virtual currencies such as Bitcoin, 24-hour trading became possible, and an era in which foreign assets such as US stocks can be easily traded has opened. The number of investors steadily increased as investment options such as stocks, futures, raw materials, and cryptocurrency diversified. The invention of MTS did not increase the number of investors explosively as in the past, but led to a stable and steady increase. This trend became the driving force for US stocks to continue their long-term upward trend for 15 years.
Then, what about after 2020? With everyone who can invest already in the market, trading fees continue to fall. Even elementary school students buy and sell cryptocurrency. Now, it is questionable who can lead the continued rise by injecting a large amount of new funds. The effect of MTS has already reached its peak, and the stock market is likely to show a cyclical pattern of repeating rising and falling rather than continuing to rise.
Finally, the idea of the AI bubble. I don't think AI will create bubbles like the Great Depression or the dot-com bubble. The invention of explosively increasing stock investment participants, such as telegrams, telephones, ticker machines, and HTS, resulted from the Great Depression and dot-com bubbles. However, AI is only used to increase the efficiency of trading and is not a direct factor in exploding stock market participants.
I've never encountered an article from this perspective. It's a logic that popped into my head, but it seems like an interesting idea, so I keep it in record like this.
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