Recently, I have a question

Recently, I have a question. "Why is Trump saying nothing about Korea?" The Korea-U.S. FTA is nullified right now! Bomb tariff! Double share of defense cost of the U.S. Forces Korea! If this happens, the South Korean government, which has an acting president, will not be able to respond, but it is not saying anything about Korea, much like Trump.

Some say that they wait until the next president comes out because there is virtually no Korean president, but this is also strange. Looking at Trump's style so far, I think he will make me accept more favorable conditions if the opponent is in a bad position, but he seems to be just watching Korea quietly.

I'm going to summarize what I've been thinking for a while now.

1. China has improved its manufacturing capabilities in industrial products it has accumulated so far, and is now trying to pour technologically superior products into the world beyond cost-effectiveness. There was a saying that China Manufacturing 2025 is the year 2025. In the automobile industry, the most representative manufacturing industry, Chinese electric vehicles dominate Japanese and German cars in terms of cost-effectiveness. Now, the only manufacturing industry that China cannot do is semiconductors.

2. The U.S. is imposing tariff barriers and sanctions because it cannot beat China in terms of cost-effective mass production, but China has bypassed and exported through Mexico and other countries. The Trump administration is blocking all this by hitting tariffs on Mexico and Canada. There is a possibility that Vietnam or Southeast Asian bypass production will soon be blocked by hitting tariffs.

3. For China, the best place to overcome the U.S. tariff barrier is Korea, where the Korea-U.S. FTA is located. In fact, China invested heavily in Korean manufacturing companies last year and is taking over stakes in them. It is looking into entering the Korean market to change its tack to the battery side, and is saying, "BYD is producing cars in Korea this year."

4. I don't think it's a good thing to change the tag in Korea, but it becomes made in Korea, so everyone opens their boundaries and accepts it. If you go to Southeast Asia, there is a store called Minisso, and at first, they put Korean characters and sold household goods. If you look at Koreans, I think they bought these, saying, "These are all made in China, but the locals must be Korean." Since Korean products are a little technological and there is an FTA that can be accepted in the United States, it can be a pretty good bypass export route.

5. For Chinese companies to enter Korea, the political community must be pro-China in Korea. Surprisingly, both ruling and opposition parties and conservatives are pro-China. More than 100 people from both ruling and opposition parties are participating in the Korea-China parliamentary coalition. People on the streets are shouting anti-China, but politicians are uniformly pro-China, and the presidential candidate is asking China to give a clout. The government said, "Chinese electric buses took more than 50 percent of the domestic market (though sales of Chinese electric cars decreased last year due to the unfavorable public sentiment), and the government is asking Chinese tourists to give them visa-free tourist visas as problems continue to arise in Jeju Island. Politicians and government officials are pushing ahead with policies that are in favor of China.

6. This year's presidential election is likely to be the Democratic Party's presidential candidate, and if it becomes the Democratic Party, neutral diplomacy (=pro-China diplomacy) will take place. If so, China's already underway investment in Korea will be made more. First of all, the visa issue will be resolved so that Chinese people can enter the country freely (the plan has already been announced, so it will likely be resolved before the presidential election), and various sanctions will be given to Chinese companies coming to Korea and investing in them, and all sanctions will be eliminated.

Under the pretext of reviving the national economy and reviving domestic demand, China's investment in Korea will be encouraged, and Chinese-invested companies will be able to issue visas very easily. Kakao Pay and these companies have already invested a lot in China, but now there is a possibility that more companies will come into the manufacturing sector to change their homes. To avoid US sanctions, I think there are many cases of using Hong Kong to create a complex equity structure and using convertible bonds to buy companies at high prices to owners who are facing inheritance tax issues. Perhaps, the Korean economy will ironically be very good next year.

7. If a pro-China government is established in Korea, the U.S. will be hit harder than expected. First of all, China should be kept in check with tariff barriers and sanctions, but Korea's manufacturing capabilities are needed. In semiconductors, shipbuilding, and defense, South Korea has a role to play for the Western camp, and if it is lost, the damage will be great.

8. In the meantime, there is no place in the U.S. or Western world that can mass-produce conventional weapons as quickly as Korea due to a decrease in the number of kepa produced by conventional weapons. In areas such as shipbuilding, if Korea clings to China, two-thirds of the world's ships will be produced by Korea and China. Korea is the only country to lean on because of the U.S. Navy's capabilities. If Korea is excluded from this, will the U.S., which cannot build ships properly in time, be able to maintain its Pacific advantage over China in the future?

9. From a military perspective, Korea is armed with quite strong military capabilities. With conventional military capabilities, the number of troops that can be mobilized far exceeds 1 million when conscripts of armed forces are included. Unless China uses nuclear weapons, it would be too much for China to compete with Korea. It is very painful for the U.S. to see the military power of an alliance with such power move away from the U.S. and end up in a neutral (=pro-China) camp.

8. Trump may be well aware of the situation in Korea. Can he shout against Korea under this circumstance: nullify the Korea-U.S. FTA, double or triple the U.S. military's defense spending in Korea? If he throws a bomb at Korea in the way he does on Mexico or Canada, how will Korea's public sentiment move? He already knows that his words will have a greater negative impact on the Korean presidential election, which is highly likely to be the Democratic candidate.

9. It's all presumptive, but I think that's why the Trump administration is not saying a word about Korea. (The pro-U.S. candidate is keeping an eye on the Korean situation behind the scenes.)