What does it mean when gold prices are at an all-time high?
1) Inflationary situation?
I'm going to buy gold if I think inflation is going to come. Because gold is inflationary. So is the market expecting inflation? Is Trump's tariff policy worrying about inflation?
The Fed will not be able to cut interest rates if inflation comes. The value of the dollar gradually disappears when inflation comes. Therefore, central banks in many countries may be trying to store gold rather than dollars.
2) The Great Depression?
Gold is a safe asset. What if the Great Depression comes and all assets such as stocks and bonds, money and real estate are collapsing? Gold will be the only safe place then. Bitcoin has never experienced the IT bubble collapse in 00 or the financial crisis in 2008. It is unclear how Bitcoin prices will move if there is a real financial crisis. Gold has proven its value in all the Great Depression situations. Is the market expecting the Great Depression?
Should I get a short shot in gold?
I'm not sure if the price of gold is Eva or reasonable. I don't even have the confidence to study about the price of gold. I don't have the ability to hold a long or short shot at all. I just look at it to read the public's thoughts on inflation or the economic crisis.
In an inflationary situation, the Fed will find it difficult to lower interest rates. There are signs that the economy is getting worse. Prices go up and the economy gets worse. It is a stagflationary situation. If inflation from tariffs occurs strongly, we may have to raise interest rates again. In that case, even if the stock market collapses, it will be difficult to lower interest rates to boost. So the market is turning the hope circuit that all tariffs are a hoax. Interest rates also believe that Trump will twist the Fed chairman's neck. It may indeed be. I think inflation will keep Trump from lowering oil prices. AI is pricing the stock market in anticipation of a productivity improvement revolution as it continues to develop. Anyway, the current stock price is the price that has been full of hope. It's still all in the fog.
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