All phenomena in the stock market

All phenomena in the stock market, gold market, and money market that have occurred this year can be interpreted as the Ripple Effect. The Ripple Effect refers to a phenomenon in which an event or action has a chain effect on several other parts. It is usually described as a wave formed by throwing a stone into the water spreading. Should I call it a small ball (a dwarf ball) fired by the dwarf.

Since Trump's inauguration, the stone of tariffs he has thrown has caused several waves. In preparation for tariffs, countries are building positions to defend themselves by depreciating their currencies and lowering interest rates. The ECB, Canada, Mexico, and a few days ago, Australia and New Zealand lowered interest rates. Countries are busy preparing for tariffs by lowering interest rates at the same time as the exchange rate is depreciated.

The reason for lowering interest rates is to prepare for the U.S. tariff bomb, but stocks are rising due to side effects (?) or ripple effects. Rising stocks in European countries will be an extreme example. The value of goods and economic phenomena are a function of money anyway. If interest rates are asked to be paid, the effect of releasing money is to reflect this in advance, raising stocks, gold, and bond prices. This is because economic phenomena can be extremely monetary.

The Korean market is also seeing its index rise significantly this year. Some say that Korean stocks are undervalued, but others say that it was pre-purchased because they expected a lot of money to be released. The government and ruling and opposition parties all agree on the extra budget. However, implementation is slow because of the impeachment motion. This affects the upcoming early presidential election depending on the details of the extra budget and the detailed direction of support within it, but it is only a matter of time. In addition, the Bank of Korea is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the Monetary Policy Committee next time due to interest rate cuts around the world. This means that Korea will implement both fiscal and monetary policies at the same time, in other words, money will be released. As institutions and foreigners bought large-cap stocks and index-related stocks through non-margin trading this year, the KOSPI has no choice but to rise.

Each country cuts interest rates and the FED says it won't cut rates. Then the dollar should continue to strengthen due to the difference in interest rates between the U.S. and each country. But the market doesn't seem to think so. This is because everyone is on one side of the fence about the dollar, which has released so much. I started thinking that I need a safe haven. Bitcoin has gone up, but can I call it a safe haven? Traditional safe haven gold prices are breaking record highs again. And another safe-haven, Japan's yen. Japan is in a position to raise interest rates due to inflation. Should I say it's still suffering from a lost decade? Anyway, the economy that endured negative interest rates has now run out of steam due to inflation. So Japan is expecting a rate hike, and even considering the yen carry funds overseas, it's only a matter of time before the Japanese yen strengthens. Today, the U.S. market finally broke the 150 yen per dollar and entered the 149 yen level. I just held and couldn't eat...

Trump is ruthlessly reducing the number of civil servants in order to strengthen his finances in addition to his tariff policies. GE, or Elon's slaughter of civil servants... If you think about it simply, since it's a cut in the salaries of civil servants, the finances will improve, but unemployment will be no joke because of the government employees who are slashed. Then will they go and do the low wages and 3D jobs caused by the cutoff of immigrants? Probably not. The worst-case scenario would be the lysens that will be caused by rising unemployment and a labor vacuum for immigrants. Because we still need more time to replace labor with AI.

In conclusion, the rise in the Non-U.S. stock market is the result of interest and exchange rate devaluation to avoid tariffs, and the hedging against the massive release of dollar liquidity is the rise of gold prices and yen. And as we look ahead, we expect that the wage-driven recessions that will rise due to the unemployment of government officials and crackdowns on illegal immigrants, which are ruthlessly slashing under the emphasis of fiscal health, will probably be the economy of the near future.

That was a long post. I have a lot to talk about, but later...Anyway, it's Friday. My knee hurts, so I've been at home all the time, and my back hurts, too. Isn't this also the ripple effect? I'm reducing my lack of exercise. Let's lose weight. When my back and knees get better, I'll definitely go to the gym... Have a healthy weekend everyone. Have a nice and healthy weekend...