미국은 이미 잠재적으로 경기침체 들어갔다?

-When looking at the U.S. Leading Economic Index (LEI) or Manufacturing Purchaser Management Index (PMI), the U.S. economy has already entered a recession -

The Conference Board releases Lagging Economic Indicator or Index (LAG), Coincident Economic Indicator or Index (CEI), and Leading Economic Indicator or Index (LEI) every month, designed to inform the economic cycle, direction, and peak and lowest points of the world's major economies.

In particular, the Leading Economic Index (LEI) interprets that the real economy is likely to enter a recession within "three months at the earliest or 18 months at the latest" after the increase/decrease rate from the previous six months was negative.

However, on December 21, 2023 (local time), The Conference Board stated, "LEI's annual growth rate remains negative and has been hovering around -8% since the first quarter of 2023 (The annual growth rate of the LEI domains native, and has been covered around -8% sin Q1 2023)." (see attached LEI).

And LEI fell by 0.5% month-on-month in November 2023 (droping 0.5% MoM), which is the 20th consecutive month-on-month drop (21 out of 23 months) and the longest consecutive decline since the "Leeman crisis (from June 2007 to April 2008, 22 consecutive months)." (This is the 20th straight MoM decline in the LEI (and 21st month of 23) - the longest break of declines since 'Lehman' (22 straight months of declines from June 2007 to April 2008).

These data are almost identical to the situation in which the U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Management Index (PMI), the U.S. manufacturing purchasing management index, drops to "48.2" in December 2023.

In other words, this PMI is comparable to the US PMI at the time of the 2009 financial crisis (see attached Markit 2009 PMI).

Accordingly, the Conference Board suggests a slowdown in US economic activity in the future in terms of US LEI (pointing to a rack of economic growth moment in the year term), and despite the US government's "hypocrisy of a soft landing," such as the US Treasury Department, LEI is showing no signs of "recovery" and has fallen below its peak in March 2006 (Despite "soft landing type," the LEI is showing no signs at all of "recovering," tumbling back bell in March 2006...).

In conclusion, The Conference Board predicts a short, shallow recession in the first half of 2024."

After all, when looking at the US Leading Economic Indicator or Index (LEI) or the manufacturing purchasing management index (PMI), it can be said that the US economy has already entered a recession.

For reference, on December 21, 2023, I presented the view that "as of this time, I analyze that the U.S. economy is already in recession," in a post, "What made Jerome Powell, the chairman of the U.S. Fed, say "Potential Rate Cuts" in 2024?"