연준의장 파월, 이번에는 3월 인하에 대해 경계하는 모습

다우 나스닥이 계속 오를까 하다가 조정받고
오를까 하다가 조정받고 반복적인 패턴을 보여주고 있네요

시장자체가 너무 늘어지는듯한 모습인데...
기다리다보면 다시 롱으로 대량매수세가 유입되길 기대해봐야할듯합니다

선반영으로 약조정 후 이제는 바닥을 지났다라는 뉘앙스를 보여주면서 대대적으로 오르는 시장을 좀 보았으면 좋겠네요

너무 늘어지다보니 증시가 재미가 없다는....ㅠㅠ

ㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡ

2024. 02. 1. 5분 미국 마감

NASDAQ 15,164(-2.23%)
미국채 10년 금리 3.9416%(-2.29%)
달러인덱스 103.601p(+0.21%) NDF 1,334원(-1원)

#FOMC #구글실적 #미지역은행 #고용지표

1월 FOMC 결과가 발표 되었습니다. 3월 금리 인하 가능성은 더 낮아졌습니다. 파월은 기자회견에서 지금 당장의 지표만 놓고 결정한다면 3월 금리 인하를 하지 않겠다고 말했습니다. 보통은 데이터를 보고 결정하겠다는 스탠스 였는데 이번에는 3월 인하에 대해 경계하는 모습을 보이면서 주식 시장은 크게 하락 했습니다. 반면 채권 시장은 파월의 매파적 반응에도 금리가 하락하였습니다. 특히 단기물인 2년물 국채가 14bp나 하락했습니다.

전일 시간외 실적을 발표한 알파벳(구글)이 7.5%나 하락하며 기술주가 동반 하락했습니다. 나스닥 시총 상위 기업들은 최근 대부분 신고가를 가고 있는 상황에서 차익매물에 하락한 것으로 보입니다. 어제 미국 지역은행들이 또 한번 크게 하락했습니다. 뉴욕커뮤니티뱅코프(NYCB)란 미국의 지역 은행이 부진한 실적을 발표하며 -37% 하락했습니다. 실적이 부진하긴 했는데 실적보다는 부실채권 특히 상업용 부동산에서 부실채권이 발생했다는 소식에 급락하는 모습을 보였습니다. 이 은행은 지난해 파산한 시그니처 은행을 인수한 기업이기도 합니다.

전일 미국 1월 ADP 민간 고용이 발표 됐습니다. 전월보다 10.7만명 증가한 수치로 예상치 15만에 크게 못 미칩니다. 4분기 고용비용지수는 전분기대비 0.9%로 예상치 1.0% 비해 낮게 나왔습니다. 고용은 둔화되고 고용비용은 감소하며 인플레이션이 둔화되는 신호는 계속 감지되고 있습니다.

채권 시장은 매파적인 FOMC에도 불구하고 금리가 하락했습니다.

재무부 분기 국채발행 계획(QRA)이 시장 예상에 부합하는 방향으로 발표되면서 채권 시장이 강세를 보이고 있습니다. 파월의 발언은 해석하기에 따라 매파적으로도 비둘기적으로도 해석 되면서 채권 시장은 파월의 발언보다 낮아지는 인플레이션 지표와 QRA에 반응하며 하락한 것으로 보입니다.

미국이 올라도 하락했던 국내 증시인데 미국이 하락한 오늘 어떻게 될지 걱정이 큽니다. 마법의 단어 '선반영'을 기대해 봅니다.









Han Sang-ho, a lawyer for Kim & Chang, said in November 2014 at a gathering of Hyun Hong-joo, former U.S. ambassador to the U.S., who was Kim & Chang's advisor, and Yoo Myung-hwan, former foreign minister, that the prime minister had a weekly report on the president regarding the problem of the forced labor re-appeal case, and that the president should also take action. "Presidential Chief of Staff Kim Ki-choon also said he would tell the Supreme Court," he said for the first time.

Taking this opportunity, Kim & Chang is pushing for an "extra-legal persuasion plan" that presents the opinions of the Korean foreign ministry in favor of Japanese companies to the Supreme Court. In order to overturn the 2012 Supreme Court's ruling in favor of the victims in a retrial, the case should be referred to the Supreme Court's en banc. To this end, the ministry is required to submit a written opinion to the Supreme Court stating that it is feared that the victims will win the case. Kim & Chang has set up a response team that only a few people participate in for security. The Japanese company approved this plan. Hyun and Yoo had several meals with then Foreign Minister Yun Byung-se to find out information.

In response to Kim & Chang's contact, former Minister Yoon responded evasively to the extent that he should talk to the director-general in charge, but slightly expressed the Ministry of Foreign Affairs' position or atmosphere, saying, "The submission of the Foreign Ministry's opinion should be at the request of the Supreme Court." Afterwards, as former Minister Yoon said, former Minister Yoo met with the director-general in charge and talked about the forced labor case.

In February 2015, Chief of Staff Kim Ki-choon called in Kwak Byung-hoon, then senior presidential secretary for civil affairs (lawyer Kim & Chang) and said, "The Supreme Court ruling in 2012 has caused great difficulties in Korea-Japan relations, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is in a very awkward situation." At the request of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, a system was created to allow the Supreme Court to submit an opinion, and the system was recently implemented and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs decided to submit an opinion, so take good care of it."

Lawyer Han Sang-ho visited former secretary Kwak and said, "It is a nationally important case that can affect Korea-Japan relations, but the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is very worried," and asked him to take good care of it. At the same time, he delivered a reason for appeal and a summary document of the issue of the forced labor case written by Kim & Chang to former secretary Kwak. Lim Jong-heon, then deputy chief of the court administration, frequently contacted Kim & Chang, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Blue House to discuss ways to submit his opinion.

Lawyer Han Sang-ho told Japanese companies, "Considering the various circumstances, it seems that the issue of submitting the Foreign Ministry's opinion has been reported within the Supreme Court to the chief justice and the head of the court administration."

When the Foreign Ministry failed to submit its opinion due to worsening public opinion, the presidential office Cheong Wa Dae and the former deputy chief Lim also urged the foreign ministry. In May 2015, Lim called a lawyer and said, "The government has a lot of concerns over the re-appeal of forced labor. The Supreme Court is also quite troubled. (…) The Supreme Court said, "There were opinions that the appellate court should destroy the case based on the newly submitted evidence, but we have decided to refer it to the en banc in principle."

"To do so, we need an official statement of opinion from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Justice to persuade other Supreme Court justices on the basis of the referral of the en banc. However, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is in a position that it is possible to submit an opinion only after a formal request from the Supreme Court, so please submit an opinion inquiry request under the name of Kim & Chang, the defendant's legal representative," he said. Lim received a draft request from Kim & Chang and gave him a revised opinion.

The name of current Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yeol appears while the Ministry of Foreign Affairs coordinates the content and timing of submission of the written opinion with the Office of Court Administration. In 2015, Cho met with Lim as the second vice foreign minister and discussed the procedure in person. He also held a meeting with working-level officials at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to review details to be included in the written opinion.

In 2016, Minister Cho told former Deputy Chief Lim, "I think the Ministry of Foreign Affairs should issue an opinion, but I am worried about how to write the opinion because I feel burdened by the Korea-Japan relationship, the problem in case it turns out to be an international lawsuit, and the problem in case it is disclosed to the outside world." In response, former Deputy Chief Lim advised, "Why don't we use a lot of footnotes in the opinion to submit a dry opinion based on facts such as foreign cases?" and Minister Cho instructed working-level officials to supplement their opinions as advised by former Deputy Chief Lim.

The court administration's review officer prepared a report that reviewed the conclusion of the case, including that it was not reasonable to dismiss the case of forced labor, and procedural considerations for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Lawyer Han Sang-ho met with former Supreme Court Chief Justice Yang privately in May, November 2015, and October 2016 and said, "I am worried that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is passive," "Kim & Chang will submit a request for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to the Supreme Court," and "I submitted a request." Former Deputy Chief Lim also reported directly to former Supreme Court Chief Justice Yang that he was going to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to discuss submitting his opinion in September 2016.

Former Chief Justice of the Supreme Court Yang did not respond strongly to lawyer Han Sang-ho's words by saying, "I see, I understand well" and "It will work out." Regarding former Deputy Chief Justice Lim's direct report, former Chief Justice of the Supreme Court Yang also expressed doubts by saying, "Does the Ministry of Foreign Affairs make an opinion?"

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Among the articles, only the facts recognized at the trial are extracted and modified.