Here we go again: the expectation of a rate cut

Here we go again: the expectation of a rate cut

Now the earnings have been maintained at a high level,
Interest rates are coming to more normal levels,
The market is less likely to reflect interest rate cuts
I'm less worried

The leading curve has already erased expectations of a third rate cut,
I'm still expecting six cuts over the next two years.

Excluding the possibility of a recession,
With inflation remaining between 3 and 4%, it's hard to expect.

The appropriate interest rate level is about 4-5%.

If the leading curve reflects less interest rate cuts,
This also leaves little room for long-term government bond rates, which are mainly affected.

Perhaps the 10-year interest rate should keep the range open to 4.25-4.75%, up to 5%.

When a similar situation happened in October last year,
The stock market reacted sensitively.
However, now that the earnings are high, they are more stable, but they are kept more expensive.

The leading PER is 20.5x, and the U.S. stock market can't afford external shocks now.
In other words, sudden negative news can cause the dumping that has been seen these days.

But in the end, the fundamentals are also in the spotlight,
It will serve to support higher prices.