Street information says

Street information says

While U.S. Q1 GDP the day before was significantly below expectations, price indicators came as a surprise.

It looks stagflationary, isn't it?

Most of the market participants still seem to expect two or three interest rate cuts within the year on the Fed Dot plot. In particular, the bond side seems to be heavily dependent on the Fed. There is considerable Bias.

Get real, dude!

Markets are already leaning toward no rate cuts this year.

At least for operations, it is much more advantageous for someone who reads market sentimental changes well than data dependent.


🖋ITK Today's Word

To sum up the first quarter's GDP data in a nutshell, it was the worst for the market. Growth came in much weaker than expected, destroying market expectations for a soft landing. On top of that, the core price that the Fed is paying attention to is a whopping 3.7%, the biggest jump in a year.

Consumer spending, recognized as the core of the U.S. economy, is also cooling, and Goldilocks expectations based on "cut interest rates and maintain growth," the biggest catalyst that has lifted the market so far, have faded.

Of course, a large economy like the U.S. can never see 1.6% growth as weak, but it is true that market expectations have fallen far short, so the market has to handle it. Fortunately, the concern about growth is that the job market is still holding on.

As long as the job market is enduring, concerns about a recession are still there. However, expectations for a rate cut this year have virtually disappeared as prices have soared, and the possibility of a December cut is alive, but it does not seem very positive.

If it's positive, it's the market's reaction today. It's because it's resilient to most of the morning shocks. In particular, indices that reflect a wide range of markets, the NYSE and the same weighting index, have all been much stronger.

There is a possibility of further adjustment, but there is a possibility that the trend of keeping things flat will continue. However, the forces leading the market may change slightly. For now, semiconductors and economic defense stocks are strong today. It is expected that the market will continue to be mixed with joy and sorrow depending on performance.