Since Trump's election, the market has been undergoing a correction for the first time, which has strongly expressed expectations for "America First" growth and enjoyed resolving presidential uncertainties.
Markets, which had shown expectations since last week's presidential election, jumped about 5% and turned lower this week alone, throwing up about half the level again. Markets were particularly shaken across the board today, with the Nasdaq down more than 2%.
The reason for this was that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the previous day that the U.S. economy was "surprisingly strong" and that there would be no need to rush to cut interest rates, as retail sales exceeded expectations today and expectations for a rate cut faded.
In the meantime, the US stock market has performed overwhelmingly better than the global stock market. The stock price multiplier of the S&P 500 compared to future profits is more than 22 times, reaching a historical high, and the burden of valuation has been great.
Nevertheless, the stock market was rising and investors were optimistic because the rate-cutting cycle had just begun and there were expectations that interest rates would continue to fall. On top of that, economic growth remained solid and worries about a recession disappeared.
Trump's election represses other countries, but there are also expectations that it will have a positive effect on U.S. companies. However, the market today strongly expressed concern that interest rates could end up with one to two rate cuts after December at best until next year.
Also, the Trump risk, which has been ignored so far, is reflected in the market as Robert Kennedy is named secretary of health and human services and begins to look at the aftermath of the tariff war.
The S&P 500 has reached the point where it could start a technical rebound. Next week, along with Nvidia's earnings, will provide clues as to whether the market can shift back to optimism.
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