The more you dig DeepSeek

The more you dig DeepSeek, the more you sell it, the more something comes out.

The end point is increasingly a war between the U.S. government and the Chinese government, which is the Cold War of the 2020s.

It wasn't a simple question of whether DeepSeek had cheat or not. The key is that China has created an o1 level model. It wasn't about cheating or not. I guess he did cheat... by any means. It's a battle between countries.
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The message DeepSeek delivers is clear.

1. China's AI technology is equal to or superior to the United States.
2. U.S. AI research is progressing carelessly.
3. Even if semiconductor exports are regulated, China can have the best technology.
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The public opinion that is being created now is ultimately to show off China's AI technology and the incompetence of the United States.

As a result, there are stories such as "The U.S. AI technology moat has been broken" and "U.S. AI research proceeds carelessly."

Is that really the case?
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- Did I make DeepSeek-V3 with 8 billion using 2048 H800s?

No.

Just as physics works the same way in both the East and the West, the highest level of technology is similar in the same paradigm. The difference in performance is only due to the different fundamentals they have built up so far.

It is impossible to make a model corresponding to GPT-4o with 2048 H800 at the cost claimed by DeepSeek.
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- Is the U.S. really conducting AI research carelessly?

No.

Did DeepSeek really only use a small amount of GPUs? DeepSeek has various attempts to increase hardware efficiency, but this can't be the basis for the laxity of AI research in the United States.
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The more I look at DeepSeek's papers, the more I feel like I'm revealing the major technologies of OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic. I feel like I'm saying, "It's not just about you."

And the prospect of fewer AI CapEx in the U.S. due to DeepSeek is completely disagreeable. More AI CapEx increases, but it can't decrease.

The reduction of AI CapEx due to DeepSeek is because the U.S. is giving itself up as a hegemonic power.

The U.S. has raised NASA's budget to 4% of the U.S. government's budget and 0.65% of GDP since the Soviet Union launched Sputnik. The private AI investment budget for 2024 is only about 0.003% of U.S. GDP.
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AI wasn't just a dot-com bubble thing. It's making a difference on par with nuclear and aerospace technologies.