National Survey of Indicators

< National Survey of Indicators (NBS) Upgrades Political Parties' Support - 35% National Power vs. 33% Democratic Party >


As of 11 a.m. on Feb. 3, the exchange rate exceeded 1,470 won. Many economists analyze that Trump's tariff bomb and the ensuing uncertainty caused the currency to skyrocket. Is this true? No.

It is easy to see that the Korean government has increased the exchange rate through aggressive policies if you take a closer look at the foreign exchange market's trading trends. Of course, this is only possible if you have been in the foreign exchange market for more than 10 years or have specialized in the currency exchange market for a long time.

The Korean government's aggressive defense of the exchange rate came after it was discovered that our exports have recently declined significantly. The high exchange rate is the root cause of the decline in exports, and our policy authorities believe that exports will increase only when the exchange rate is raised further.

According to economic reality, when the current account was in surplus, exports would inevitably decrease when the exchange rate rose. On the contrary, if the exchange rate gradually fell, exports would inevitably increase in the long run, the current account surplus would increase, and the domestic economy would improve, leading to an economic boom.

Of course, current economics teaches that exports increase only when the exchange rate rises. Therefore, Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs Choi Sang-mok would have believed that since exports have become sluggish, the exchange rate should be raised further and implemented it. It would have been even more so because he went to an American university and received a doctorate in economics.

However, I would like to ask Choi Sang-mok: Has there ever been a case in the history of the world where an increase in the exchange rate led to an increase in exports when the current account is in the black.

Japan has implemented the low yen policy, or the high exchange rate policy, nine times since 1995, but exports have continued to remain sluggish and the domestic economy has only worsened. As a result, the average annual growth rate over the past 35 years has been only 0.8%, and per capita GDP is now behind Korea.

I want to ask Choi Sang-mok once again. Is theory more important or reality more important? Shouldn't theories that are negative in reality be revised? Isn't that the way economics should go as a social science?

Considering the current economic difficulties caused by the high exchange rate policy and the severe economic difficulties of the people, I even want Choi Sang-mok to be impeached.

Today, our stock market is also falling. Foreign investors are dumping foreign exchange losses to avoid high exchange rates, so the stock market is bound to plunge. The best stocks are reprehensible even for our stock market, which is the worst in the world. For your information, I do not invest in any stocks. I have maintained this attitude for objective economic diagnosis.
1>.
Key polls include the National Survey of Indicators (NBS), Gallup Korea and Realmeter. NBS will be released on Thursday, Gallup Korea on Friday, and Realmeter on Monday.

Since the 12.3 martial law, the party's approval rating has reversed for the first time. The national power is 35% and the Democratic Party is 33%.

They were also asked about the approval ratings of presidential candidates based on political parties. They are 36 percent for Democratic Party of Korea and 33 percent for National Defense. They are slightly ahead of Democratic Party candidates by 3 percentage points.

They asked if they wanted a "regime change." It was 48 percent for a regime change vs. 41 percent for a regime change.

2>.
Why on earth is public opinion like this? Has the evaluation of Yoon Suk Yeol been transformed into a "hero" as the far-right and national forces hope?

This is not the case. The poll on "Ceremony and Impeachment" such as citing impeachment, timing of impeachment trial, arrest warrant, and response to Yoon Suk Yeol still maintains 65% vs. 30%.

The KBS and MBC polls announced in the New Year showed a 70 percent vs. 25 percent structure. In the third week of January, only about 5 percentage points changed.

Acting Constitutional Court Justice Choi Sang-mok nominated two of the three judges on Dec. 31. As of this point, the "time of constitution" became effective. At the same time, the "champong phase of the impeachment phase and the early presidential election" was held from then on.

The people think that Yoon Suk Yeol should be driven out. However, when thinking about the presidential election, it seems that there is a clear favor/lose of representative Lee Jae-myung. Of course, it is not enough to overturn the situation.

When asked if there is a regime change, 48% say there is a need for a regime change and 41% say there is a need for a regime change.

In summary, the flow of "Yoon Suk Yeol to defeat, Yoon Suk Yeol to drive out" is not wavering at all regarding the impeachment citation, timing of the impeachment trial, execution of arrest warrants, and response to Yoon Suk Yeol.

However, coming into the <early presidential election frame>, the figure narrows significantly.
<<48% needs regime change vs. 41% needs regime re-creation>>

This gap narrows further when the candidate structure comes in.
<<36% of Democratic presidential candidates vs. 33% of national power presidential candidates>>

The party's approval rating announced by NBS today was 33 percent for the Democratic Party of Korea vs. 35 percent for the national power. Such a party's approval rating should be viewed as a response with even presidential candidates in mind. In a nutshell, it shows that there are still strong likes and dislikes of Chairman Lee Jae-myung.

3>.
What should the DP and its leader Lee Jae-myung do?

It is necessary to pursue an action plan to ease the antipathy of the middle class while being decisive about the rebellion and the insurrection forces.

Easing the antipathy of the middle class does not mean "compromise with the insurrectionists." Yoon Suk Yeol's arrest was justified, Yoon Suk Yeol's impeachment would be cited, and Yoon Suk Yeol would go to bread.

You can maintain the principles for "Ecophony, Impeachment".

However, apart from this, it is necessary to make political and policy plans to alleviate antipathy and increase trust between the middle class against the Democratic Party and representative Lee Jae-myung.

4>.
What does the recent Democratic Party, National Power's party approval rating 'stick together' imply?

This implies that the early presidential election in 2025 is highly likely to be a "close presidential election."

After the impeachment of the National Park Geun Hye's manipulation of state affairs in 2017, the total vote share of <Bum Progress> was 47%. It was 41% in Moon Jae In and 6% in Sim Sang Jung.

The total of <median remuneration> was 28%. It was 21% for Ahn Cheol Soo and 7% for Yoo Seung Min.

24% of the Hong Joon Pyo were "conservatives against impeachment". Progress alone did not exceed 50%.

At that time, candidate Moon Jae In made a bold move to expand the middle by recruiting Kim Jong-in, chairman of the emergency committee, recruitment of a concession to Samsung Electronics, and recruitment of secretary Cho Eung-cheon of the Park Geun Hye government in the 2016 general election. This move provided a sense of stability to the middle and conservatives as well.

Elections are 51% games. 51% are made only through the Voters' Union.

The election is a game in which if this side makes 51%, they win, and if that side makes 51%, they lose.

If Mayor Oh Se-hoon is elected as a candidate for national power and later unifies with Lee Joon-seok, the 2025 presidential election will start with a 52% vs. 48% structure.

It starts with 52% of Lee Jae-myung and 48% of Oh Se-hoon. However, the gap of about 7% points will rise and fall through the 'election campaign'.

1) To judge Yoon Suk Yeol, the leader of the civil war
2) The Democratic Party is in power, but it's related,
3) It should not be forgotten that it is a separate matter.

The clinging "party" approval ratings in NBS and Gallup Korea warn Democrats. "Don't be mistaken that you won the Democratic Party. Yoon Suk Yeol, that man has to fly, but you guys have to think about coming to power."

(*Public opinion)