I think this is the high end of the Nasdaq.

I think this is the high end of the Nasdaq.

In a month or two, the index will eventually break below the neckline. I think it's after "Feb. 26," the day of Nvidia's earnings report.

It is expected that the U.S.-China trade war, inflation from tariffs, and the end of the AI-themed season (re-evaluation of big tech companies that have made large-scale investments) will be used as an excuse.

After the downward break, a strong return will occur, and the return will be limited until the suspension of the high-value box.

When you break through the neckline, you will have a large amount of shots attached at the low point. If you burn all the attached shots and go down, it will prevent the blade of the shot from going down while it is falling. The force will strongly pull back upward after breaking the neckline. Then the shots burned at the low point will be cut off and robbed. Also think of it as a real half and there will be a lot of longs on board.

After that, forces will quickly plunge the index. If the neckline is broken for the first time, it will be lowered for the same reason as Nvidia's earnings report, but a drop after the pullback is likely to be an unprovoked drop. In other words, ants will suffer without anticipating a significant drop. If this long fall without justification, ants in long will continue to water down and liquidate. Also, the severed shorts will not be able to keep up with the short because they are afraid of rebounding. From a spot point of view, the fall without justification will make you hesitate and water down.

The Nasdaq is expected to fall every day for more than two weeks during the big crash season. In line with the crash, the media and experts are expected to try hard to find a reason for the decline. And it seems that they will create a good reason later and give a justification.

(The above is just an extremely personal forecast scenario. The odds of getting it right are extremely low. Please read it for fun.)

Figure 1. Current Nasdaq Chart
Figure 2. Downward Neckline Breakthrough Chart at 22 Years of Fall