Going too far ahead of your time is

"Going too far ahead of your time is indistinguishable from wrong," Howard Max said in a January note. Giving a warning too early means it's bad for both the speaker and the listener.

In the beginning, he said, "You can't go too far ahead of your time," and in the text, he warned that irrational overheating was occurring around large U.S. technology stocks. It's the first bubble warning in 25 years since 2000. At the end, "It's like a bubble, but it's not a completely crazy bubble," so we'll have a corner to run away in case the warning is ahead of its time.

In addition to Howard Max, several gurus are sending danger signals. Buffett is actively increasing his cash by selling his holdings. Richard Bernstein says big tech stocks are overvalued. Ruchir Sharma goes one step further and even says the U.S. stock bubble burst (PoP) is imminent.

The February coffee pot summarized/cleared the latest warnings from 4 guru.

These four are both value investing and reverse thinking investors. If the market continues to focus on one place, value investors gradually pull out. As of the last three quarters, Buffett's share of cash holdings (Berkshire cash / total assets) is the highest ever. If the market goes like this, it will increase further this year.  

The title of the contribution is "Last Warning for Bubbles." I also said I should be careful since the first half of last year because the market has been over-focused. It's a bit ahead. But the conclusion doesn't change. As the concentration has strengthened, if the market turns around, the loss from the concentrated position will be greater.

Personally, I believe that the market, which is focused on certain stocks/sectors before and after President Trump's inauguration, has entered the normalization phase. In terms of asset prices, the performance of the Chinese/European stock market at the beginning of the year is better than that of the United States.

It's a painstaking contribution. You won't waste time reading it.