Trump-Zelenskyy talks fail, outlook on international situation

Trump-Zelenskyy talks fail, outlook on international situation

WASHINGTON, D.C., Feb. 28, 2025 - President Trump's meeting with Zelenskyy is catastrophic, and the direction of the war in Ukraine has entered a new phase.

1. No significant changes on the Ukrainian front right now
Trump will stop supporting Ukraine, but that doesn't make Russia likely to win.
🔹 Russian attacks have slowed for three consecutive days, with no more than 100 attacks a day
🔹 Russia is even mobilizing donkeys due to lack of military supplies
🔹 Ukraine's persistent hit to oil facilities hits Russia to ban oil exports through March-August
Russia, which has been exhausted by the three-year war of attrition, is unable to continue large-scale fighting.

2. Europe in shock, will it make a new decision?
Europe was in shock for a while when news of the breakdown of the negotiations broke out.
🔹 An unexpected negotiation catastrophe even for Macron who brokered the deal
🔹 However, Europe is firm in its support for Zelensky and calls for increased support
🔹 Contrary to the criticism that "Europe is all talk," the actual amount of aid is $138 billion, more than the United States ($119.7 billion).
If the U.S. pulls out, we cannot rule out a scenario in which Europe intervenes directly. The European military has recently been discussed.

3. Russia, can we take advantage of this situation?
Kremlin highlights Ukraine's diplomatic isolation as negotiations collapse.
🔹 "U.S. Dumped Ukraine!" - Russia's propaganda campaign in full swing
🔹 As soon as the U.S. cuts off aid, Russia can gain the upper hand on the battlefield
🔹 But Russia's economy reaches its limit, risks state bankruptcy if long-term war continues
Russia's reality is that "it has the upper hand in the war, but it cannot win."

4. China's Unexpected Neutrality, Hidden Calculations?
In a recent U.N. resolution on the war in Ukraine, China surprised everyone by choosing neutrality.
🔹 What if this deal succeeds and Russia joins hands? - China's geopolitical nightmare
🔹 China could use 'economic pressure card' to keep Russia in check
🔹 Currently, Russia is overly dependent on China economically, and Russia's economy will falter further if China turns its back on it
"It seems to be helping Russia, but it could be a slap in the face at the back" - China's strategic calculation.

5. Trump, who has lost face, takes a fatal blow to the negotiator's image
Trump used tough negotiation skills in this negotiation, but faced headwinds.
🔹 A coercive and straightforward negotiating style – but Zelensky is undaunted
🔹 A Trump style that only emphasizes its own interests may be effective in short-term one-off negotiations, but not long-term strategies.
🔹 Spread the image of a failed president in diplomacy
"A tiny little country's tiny comedian president has embarrassed Trump!" Negative effect on Trump's self-proclaimed image as a strongman.

6. the possibility of renegotiation
Considering President Trump's remarks and the outcome of the talks, renegotiations are unlikely to take place within a short period of time unless the two sides narrow their differences.
🔹 Trump will likely pull out of Ukraine for the time being due to his damaged image
🔹 Negotiations without peace guarantees, such as NATO membership, cannot be accepted by Zelensky
🔹 For renegotiations to happen? - Russia needs to do well enough to take Kyiv, but with current strength "not a jaw."

7. Implications for Korea
The breakdown shows that an alliance is not permanent, and that an alliance with the U.S. is no exception. Trump is showing a cold attitude toward allies by using U.S. support as a means of trading. He is expected to demand a huge price for his country's trade deficit with South Korea. South Korea should not rely solely on the South Korea-U.S. alliance for its security policy, but should also strengthen its defense capabilities and multilateral diplomatic strategy.