Elon Musk's AI company, xAI, announced Grok 1.5.

📰 xAI announces Grok 1.5

Elon Musk's AI company, xAI, announced Grok 1.5.

Somehow (?) this news feels a bit quiet. Unlike the quiet, it's a performance model that's close to the GPT-4.

The context length of the Grok 1.5 is 128K, which is small compared to the recently published models, but the accuracy for information extraction reaches 100%.

By the way, looking at the performance metrics, I think the recent improvement in HumanEval performance of models is related to Context Retrieval performance.

Anyway, models that are close to or exceed GPT-4 performance such as Claude 3, Gemini 1.5, and Grok 1.5 are appearing one after another. Meta's Llama 3 will soon appear, and Llama will have that performance.

I think it's time to answer OpenAI at least once. OpenAI is quite quiet these days. Is it the eve of the storm? I'm looking forward to what they'll be preparing. 😎🍿🥤As you pass by Times Square in Manhattan, New York City, you will find a number that suddenly stands out in an outdoor billboard that passes by.

National debt

It's a federal debt. It's the essence of the Debt-ceiling issue, an annual congressional event, and it's a huge political burden for both parties.

In recent days, Wall Street has seen several influential figures, including Chairman BlackRock Larry Fink, express concern over the rapid rise in U.S. federal debt.

That would be the case, too. It took nine months to increase U$1tri from U$31tri, and recently increased U$1tr in 100 days. Historically, the pace of federal debt growth has increased exponentially since Covid-19, due to increased government spending and tax cuts.

'23.6.15 : U$ 32tr
'23.9.15 : U$ 33tr
'24.1.4 : U$ 34tr

Some expect debt burdens from increased federal spending to continue to expand regardless of who will win the U.S. presidential election this year.

As a result, interest costs on government debt due to the Fed's maintenance of its high-interest rate policy reached U$1.1tr per year and 5% of U.S. GDP.

In the end, if large-scale debt floats and even this continues to increase, the US federal government might only live in the direction of 1) tolerating inflation to reduce the value of money and reduce real financial costs, or 2) enhancing the overall productivity of the system through AI semiconductor innovation in terms of industry.

In recent years, central banks in major countries have also seen a significant increase in the amount of gold purchases in line with U.S. federal debt. Usually, gold prices were weak when the dollar strengthened and real interest rates rose. It is more convincing to say that the recent strength in gold prices is due to the supply and demand effects of central banks rather than macro variables.

If so, the two-track strategy of Undervalued, Underwritten, and Unloved gold minutes, which is part of the AI rally-triggered semiconductor stock strength (led stocks) and just-involved rally, looks highly effective in the U.S. Debt crisis era for the time being.