It starts with electioneering. We have to talk about this. In short, it's Status Quo. The public sentiment was extreme. Gyeongsang Province and Jeolla Province, which others do, showed their regional colors, and conservative candidates represented by Gangnam, Yongsan, Bundang, and Maraepu, who they think are the upper-middle class in this country, were elected. Now the ball is passed on to the president again. My honest feeling is that I don't expect anything. In life, people don't change. I'm afraid they'll praise me for winning more seats than the last general election. The reason why I'm so worried about politics is that it's directly related to the economy.
* Wells Fargo
- Up to 4625 -> 5535 at the end of this year, S&P 500 Index
- With the promotion of risk asset preference and leverage investment
System risk increases, but the risk is not close to the highest level.
- However,
1) When the spread of investment-grade corporate bonds spreads to 115p
2) If inflation rises to the point where FED's expectations of easing this year/next year disappear
3) When 10-year yields hold above 5% for six months
Stay optimistic until now
Currently, the spread of corporate bonds is around 92bp, a 15-year low
- But we expect volatility to soar in the first half of this year
In the second half of the year, the possibility of melt-up is expected to increase.
This year, we are thinking that if interest rates are lowered and semiconductor stocks only recover, we will eat well and live well again. However, as revealed by the U.S. CPI yesterday, the U.S. is also not coming down due to the sticky hang of INFRE. Although FED MINUTES still suggests a rate cut and a reduction in QT, I think the dilemma will continue as the INFRE index does not help. It seems that the June rate cut is going to pass, and most of the news is that they are looking forward to July. Our market will be hit hard today, but what I think is the main street, not Wall Street. I'm really worried about how much the stores in our economy will be if interest rates continue to go through H4L like this.
As expected, life is full of luck. When I saw Kim Jong-min who was elected as a father in Sejong, I felt that he was the same as the one who applied for and passed the college entrance examination. Why did I think of Jeon Hye-rin's book "And Didn't Say Anything" while watching the election results? Humans feel anew that the characters are the same as those in Damien's novels. Still, they will have no choice but to adapt to their environment as animals born on Earth. Life is not about living, but about living. It's a day when people will call me to drink. Conservative friends feel relieved, liberal friends feel frustrated. Anyway, society recommends drinking.... Good morning....
As the U.S. stock market closed sharply lower last night on high price indicators, our stock market is bound to be affected today...
On top of that, we need to look at the flow of this as the ruling party's victory in the general election is bound to adversely affect the stock market in terms of value up and gold investment issues...
Foreigners have bought a lot of value companies so far, and how fast they will get out... (If the value companies are pushed back, the KOSPI index will be pushed back, and if so, the market as a whole will be pushed back), and the gold investment tax issue is more likely to be affected by the second half of the year and the end of the year than right now...
Inverse themes may be fine early in the move, how low semiconductor sectors can hold during the day, and value-up flows may determine the market's flow today....
I'm expecting a tough market, but let's all cheer up...
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