cpi가 내려오긴하는것같은데 금리인하는 아직 멀고먼 이야기다 라고 생각하는분들이 많네요

-If you look at the CPI of April 2024 in the U.S., the timing of the Fed's rate cut is still far away -

음 cpi가 내려오긴하는것같은데 금리인하는 아직 멀고먼 이야기다 라고 생각하는분들이 많네요

올해 1번만 해주더라도 대박아닌감...ㅋ

tmf가 이제는 바닥인것같고

향후 2배~3배 올라갈 가능성은 높아보이는데 말이죠

테슬라가 먼저가려나 아니면 금리인하와 동시에 tmf가 먼저 움직일까요?

The U.S. Department of Labor's CPI for April 2024, released May 15, 2024 (local time), rose "0.3 percent" month-on-month and "3.4 percent" year-on-year.

For reference, the CPI for March 2024 was "3.5%" year-over-year.

In addition, excluding volatile food and energy prices, "core or source CPI" rose 0.3% month-on-month and 3.6% year-on-year.

In other words, "Headline Inflation," including energy and food, and prices for general goods and services, is still high, and Core CPI is still high.

However, the market is optimistic that the Fed will cut its benchmark interest rate soon.

So the strong dollar has become weak, government bond yields have fallen, and the U.S. stock market has soared, and the New York Stock Exchange's three major indexes are at record highs.

He considers himself "Political Situations" to win votes ahead of the November U.S. presidential election.

In short, the Fed is not timing to cut its benchmark interest rate right now, but rather raising it is saving the U.S. economy.

In other words, the U.S. Labor Department's CPI for April 2024 is "0.3 percent" month-on-month, "3.5 percent" in March and "3.4 percent" in April.

No analysis of any data shows that the Fed should cut its benchmark interest rate in the near future.

In other words, there is no data on disinflation.

For reference, disinflation refers to a phenomenon in which prices rise but the rate of increase continues to decrease.

And in order to become disinflation, the CPI must continue to be low and at the same time, the money supply must not increase.

In other words, for inflation to occur, CPI, M2 (monetary money volume), and PPI (producer price index) must decrease.

However, the CPI is still high at "3.4%" in the United States, M2 continues to increase, and PPI continues to rise.

First, let's look at the M2 (original money supply) of the United States (see attachment)

M2 in the U.S. has been rising sharply since October 2023, and PPI is also rising sharply from "0.9%" in November 2023 and "2.2%" in April 2024 (see attachment).

Since this rise in PPI leads to an increase in CPI in the next 1-2 months, the US CPI is bound to rise in the future.

However, the global financial markets are fluctuating due to this "political situation" in the United States.

But keep in mind that if the mountain is high, the valley is deep.