"貨量 Indicator" that accurately foretells real estate recession
Personally, it was decades ago that I first took interest in and observed the impact of changes in the money supply on the real economy
At that time, the effect of changes in M2, called the money supply (M1), or the money supply of 廣, on the real economy and prices was mainly analyzed
Recently, a person who specializes in analyzing real estate data presented very interesting data, and the most influential indicator of money supply on the real estate market is neither the growth rate of M1 nor the growth rate of M2, but the "ratio between M1 and M2 (M1/M2)
I think it's quite a surprising analysis.
Interestingly, China's "M1/M2 ratio" has decreased significantly as prices of Chinese real estate have plunged nationwide in recent years and transaction volumes have also plunged
No matter how much money is released, no matter how much money is released, so it can be seen that the "M1/M2 ratio" is right behind the downturn in the real economy and real estate market
In Korea, the "M1/M2 ratio" has gradually been on a downward trend since its peak in 2021, and if this continues, it will serve as the most accurate "風向計" warning of the risk of a collapse in the Korean real economy as well as the real estate market
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