사실 닷컴버블과의 비교는 좀 다른거 같은게 많이 올랐다 말고는 완전히 다른거 같긴 합니다.

사실 닷컴버블과의 비교는 좀 다른거 같은게 많이 올랐다 말고는 완전히 다른거 같긴 합니다.

닷컴버블 당시 켄 피셔는 Cash Burn rate를 측정하여 추가적 외부 자본 조달 없이 (증자 등) 얼마나 버틸 수 있냐라는걸 측정했었는데 닷컴 기업 절반이 증자없이 1개 분기도 못 버티는거 보고 시장에서 도망갔죠. 근데 지금 나스닥이 그런 수준이냐... 그건 또 아님.

버블이라는 말은 함부로 쓰는게 아니라고 생각함.


펌 ㅣ ECB는 금리를 또 내려 이제 3%가  되었다. 미국 시장 어제 하락은 표면적으로는 인플레다. PPI가 예상보다 높게 나와 시중 금리 상승과 달러 강세가 이유라고 하지만 몇 일 동안 급등한 것에 대한  profit taking이 더 많았다고 생각한다. 그래도 stubbornly sticky한 인플레로 인해 다음 주 기준금리는 25bp 내려도 시중 금리가 쉽게 내려 오지는 않을 거라 전망한다.... stubbornly sticky 이 말을 꾸준히 보게 될 것 같고 써야 할 것 같다.

우리 장은 선물옵션 동시 만기 때 탄핵 가결 심리를 이용해 파생에서 수익 극대화 전략을 쓰며 장을 급등 시키며 마감했다. 다시 내일 탄핵 표결의 불확실 변수와 단기 장 상승 그리고 미국 장 하락으로 오늘은 쉬어 가는 장이 전개될 거라 생각한다. 주식시장 예상보다 하루 빨리 이 혼란을 마감 시킬 탄핵이 가결되길 바랄 뿐이다.

적의 적은 우리 편이라는 말이 있다. 이번 국힘당의 행동을 보면서 국힘당은 앞으로 찍지 않겠다는 사람들이 늘어났다. 그들은 또한 국힘당이 그토록 혐오하는 이재명을 지지하겠다도 하고 있다. 정치 무관심자들이던 그들이 이유는 모르지만 자기네들이 이번 사태를 보면서 싫어하게 된 국힘이 이재명을 그토록 죽이려고 하는 걸 보니 역으로 이재명을 지지하겠다고 하고 있다. 국힘은 이재명 죽이기 전략,전술에서 역공을 맞고 있다. 박그네 때처럼 해처 모여라. 국힘당명으로 지방 선거도 총선도 대선도 힘들테니.....

이번 주가 지나면 미국 장의 거래가 많이 줄어들 거다. 올 해 너무 좋았기 때문에 펀드들도 펀드 매니저도 거래를 조기 마감하고 연말 휴가를 떠날 거다. 미국 펀드매니저들은 과거에 보니 성적순으로 휴가를 떠나더라. 올 해는 다들 짭짤했을 거다. 여러가지로 미국 상황이 부럽다.....


A driver in his 70s and over in a taxi keeps talking about all kinds of conspiracy theories, maybe he's seen a lot of TV. He doesn't even answer because he doesn't want to hear it, and he keeps talking even though he's wearing earphones. There are many explanations for why this is happening, but there are a few things

1. The college enrollment rate for those in their 70s is 14% and those in their 20s are in their mid-70s. (The college enrollment rate is not the total population of that age group, but the percentage of high school graduates in the current year. At that time, the high school enrollment rate was less than 70%.)

2. The elderly poverty rate once exceeded 50% and then fell to about 40.4%, but it is still No. 1 in the OECD.

Basically, the above level of education or income should not be an indicator of an individual's thinking or personality problem. These conditions are just conditions, and the differences according to the problems of thinking and personality are much more varied among individuals. (The average personality value may differ according to the blood type, but the individual variation is much larger, so blood type personality theory is not scientific.)

So the more valid stories are the following.

1. Loneliness tends to strengthen stubbornness.

2. Being old means that you have lived your life the way you used to. It is not easy to feel motivated to abandon the old method. It means that if you listen to what you want to hear and believe what you want to believe, your life will not fall into a big crisis. It is true that YouTube greatly reinforced this trend, but it was still the case with people like that when it was not there. (It means that it is strongly influenced by the region and its cultural group.) The Meme that Dawkins talked about is very powerful

3. In general, conspiracy theories become distrustful as you get older. This is because you have a lot of experience in life.

4. However, the condition most commonly known to believe in conspiracy theories is not actually the condition of age, income, or educational level, but of being "socially alienated." (Why Yoon came to believe in conspiracy theories is a bit different. It has the ability to alienate itself. Cognition is distorted in the first place.)

5. It is difficult to escape from one's existing thinking when you start to feel alienated and pushed to the outside world. If you actively engage in social interactions by the external environment, such as working at a company with people with various thoughts, you will experience fewer of these problems, but if you feel alienated for any reason, it is difficult to escape when exposed to negative or conspiracy-based thinking. Of course, you are a person and you look for people who feel similar to you. When you feel a sense of usefulness or satisfaction here, the same mechanism as a cult or multi-level works from then on, and you have a defensive attitude toward opinions that oppose it (an attitude that only talks about yourself is a kind of defensive attitude).

6. What is scary about the feeling of alienation is that it prevents you from acknowledging reality. The moment you do not recognize reality, cognition is distorted, and distorted cognition increases the bias of information collection, and this vicious cycle repeats.

In the end, it means that there is no affection for one's life and a warm and periodic exchange with the people around you. I really didn't want to hear the taxi driver's story, but I thought about this and decided to understand it while looking for data.