Now, the gross return index (the dividend

미국이 경제상황에 대해서 엄청 잘 대처하네요

전반적으로 문제는 없어보입니다

물론 너무 고점일 수 있다는점이 우려스럽긴 하죠

ㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡㅡ

7th inning: long-term rise

Now, the gross return index (the dividend reinvestment index) is back above the 150-year trend line.

Which raises the question of where the long-term trend is,
I think it's the 7th inning

You can always guess where the long-term trend is,
So far, the market is following the bull market from 1982-2000 and 1949-1968.

The trend lines are almost the same.

It's interesting that market narratives now follow the 1960s, the era of "guns and butter," and the 1990s, when the tech boom occurred.

These two periods have always been fast and sharp,
It wasn't until nine years later that the decline began.

There's a lot of discussion about whether the bull market starts in '09 or '13, but we use '09 here.

I don't think 13 years is the "confirmation" of the bull market, not the market.

Markets in all long-term bull markets started with "over-selling from the trend."

In general, starting to recover at a point 50% below the trend, and returning to the trend is the "recovery".

a sharp rise in the recovery field that marks the beginning of the trend and
If you look at a more mature, narrow high that ends up being higher,
You can get up to a percentage of the trend progression.

In general, the rising field appears to be flattened when viewed on a log scale.