미국GDP예측치 급락, 반등 할 수 있을까?

-An artificial consumption policy such as the "People's Recovery Fund" is also needed for the fast-slowing U.S. economy and the fast-slowing South Korea economy -

미국GDP예측치 급락, 반등 할 수 있을까?

All three major indexes on the New York Stock Exchange, which closed on the morning of May 31, 2024, fell sharply.

In particular, the Dow is tumbling from its peak of "40,004" on May 17, 2024 to "38,441" this morning.

But this is not accidental or temporary.

Big news for the U.S. economy last night revealed revised U.S. GDP was "1.3 percent" in the first quarter of 2024.

This is down 0.3 percent from the original provisional estimate of 1.6 percent.

So Here's What CNBC Is Saying.

“Q1 GDP Revised Lower To Just 1.3%, Lowest In Two Years As Consumption Slows”,

In other words, "U.S. GDP in the first quarter of 2024 is lowered to 1.3% due to slowing consumption," the lowest in two years.

So what's the biggest reason for this downward revision of U.S. GDP?

CNBC summarizes this as follows.

“Overall, the GDP number confirms that the US economy is slowing rapidly as US consumers - especially those in the lower half - have hit a brick wall with maxed out credit cards and wages which fail to keep up with inflation”,

To sum up, "These GDP figures confirm that the U.S. economy is slowing down quickly, with U.S. consumers, especially those in the lower echelons, hitting a wall due to credit card limits and wages that keep up with inflation."

In a nutshell, high inflation reduces real income, which prevents Americans from spending, which slows the U.S. economy quickly, resulting in low GDP figures.

Then, how is the situation in Korea?

According to the "household trend survey" released by the National Statistical Office on May 23, 2024, the average monthly income per household in the first quarter of 2024 was "5,122,000 won," up 1.4 percent year-on-year, but real income reflecting inflation fell 1.6 percent.

Therefore, it can be seen that the case of Korea is the same as that of the United States.

So how are we going to settle this?

I would like to give you an example.

The number of babies born in Gangjin-gun, Jeollanam-do, a small rural area with a population of 32,000, increased by 80% in the first quarter of 2024 compared to the same period last year.

Regardless of the number of children, Gangjin-gun pays 600,000 won per month for 84 months for each born child, and the full amount of the child care allowance is paid in local currency that can only be used in Gangjin.

However, these local currencies become basic income every month, which is of great help to households in high price situations, helps revitalize the local economy, and continues to live in Gangjin-gun.

The full amount of childcare allowance is paid in local currency that can only be used in Gangjin.

Here, let's look at CEO Lee Jae-myung's "People's Recovery Support Fund."

Some politicians and general panelists say "250,000 won" is not good for the economy.

It's definitely helpful.

Since these "people's livelihood recovery subsidies" are supported by local currency, they are consumed, produced, invested, and employment increases, leading to an increase in regional and national GDP.

Private consumption contributing to Korea's GDP is approximately "+/- 48%".

In other words, as in the case of the United States mentioned earlier, private consumption determines GDP in Korea.

Therefore, we believe that artificial consumption policies such as the "People's Recovery Support Fund" are necessary for the rapidly slowing Korean economy.