Prepare for a market led by semiconductors and batteries

● Prepare for a market led by semiconductors and batteries

* I'm summarizing my concerns and strategies about the stock market for the first time in a long time.

[Semiconductor]

1. Why the semiconductor sector has been sluggish since the second half of last year
1) IT Device B2C Performance Demand Slows Down Legacy Semiconductor Demand
2) Momentum weakens as AI infrastructure investment growth slows
3) Trump policy uncertainty, trade dispute concerns

2. Recent Semiconductor Sector Rebound Mood Factors
1) ISM Manufacturing Index bounces back
- The positive impact of legacy semiconductors deeply related to IT devices as ISM Manufacturing Index rebound represents B2C rebound
- China's recent policy to boost mobile demand, reduce the inventory exhaustion period of parts in the set industry
2) US CSP Companies CAPEX Up: Total CAPEX +40% Compared to 24 Years
3) Chairman Lee Jae-yong's Judicial Risk Resolution Boosts Expectations for Samsung Electronics and Value Chain
4) Legacy Semiconductor floor check mood: NAND January ASP bounces back for first time in five months
- There are talks about a legacy rebound, but there are still no signs of a rebound in the second quarter. It's time to focus on materials that can be expected to be HBM for Samsung Electronics rather than just a legacy rebound

3. Will China's demand recover
- During the Lunar New Year period (January 28 to February 4, 2025) compensation sales of automobiles, home appliances, mobile phones, and other digital products reached 8.6 million units (set), and sales exceeded 31 billion yuan
- Consumer Electronics Revenue +166% YoY, Mobile Phone Revenue +182% YoY
- YOY orders increase by more than 40% during Chinese New Year
- Sales of mobile phones account for 70% of household appliances, mobile phones and other digital products with replacement support subsidies during the Lunar New Year period -> Meaning that this old-fashioned renewal policy has led to a boost in consumption

4. Semiconductor Investment Ideas for 2025 Reinstates Samsung Electronics' Competitiveness
1) Hybrid bonding with HBM4
2) Foundry yield and utilization rate

5. Hybrid bonding
• For hybrid bonding, zero defects and increased interfacial bonding will be the key to yield
• Wafer bonding equipment, CMP equipment, laser dicing equipment, inspection and measurement equipment, and annealing equipment will be particularly important
• In HBM4 16th stage, Samsung Electronics will use a different strategy from SK Hynix by confirming adoption of hybrid bonding
• Hybrid bonding uses the technology of major definition. In the future, not only HBM but also more than 400 layers of 3D NAND, system semiconductors to 3D packaging area, and 3D DRAM will be expanded
• The big benefit of hybrid bonding is that equipment or materials that did not exist before are applied, or that they cannot enter into HBM manufacturing, and penetrate competitors (Eotechnics, Park Systems, Oros Technology, Yulchon Chemical)

1) wafer bonding equipment
- Transition to hybrid bonder after using existing TC bonder. Samsung tested Dutch BESI and its own Semes equipment with hybrid bonder
- Samsung Electronics uses non-conductive film (NCF) as bonding material, and SK Hynix uses MR-MUF (Molded Reflow Underfill)
- Hybrid bonder does not require additional filling materials and direct bonding of copper and passivation interface
- SK Hynix is developing an MR-MUF-based plus-less bonding method at the 16th stage of HBM4. The purpose of reducing the gap between dies by removing the flux used in the mass reflow process is -> Hanmi Semiconductor

2) CMP(Chemical Mechanical Polishing) 장비
- Required for surface flattening process for hybrid bonding
- Surface area properties must be satisfied because die/wafer bonding surfaces are in direct contact
- In the case of the copper layer, a slight gap called dipping must be formed, which is formed during the CMP process
- Important cleaning solution to remove any particles or contaminants remaining on the surface after CMP

3) Laser Dicing Equipment
- Replacement of laser grooving and mechanical sawing with laser dicing, a combination of laser grooving and stealth dicing. Introduction of femtosecond grooving and fade out of mechanical sawing increase the share of eotechnics in the Japanese disco monopoly system
- Introduction of new materials to make particles zero in the dicing process. Hybrid bonding is so important that it is called a war on dust, and the benefits of new materials related to it are expected to be large

4) Inspection and Measurement Equipment
- Precision instrumentation for nanometer-level surface profile and roughness control -> Park Systems
- Need to introduce 3D inspection equipment capable of void measurement -> femtron, nextin
- Increasing demand for equipment to measure Warpage -> Oros Technology

5) annealing equipment
- The annealing step is to increase the heat to strongly bond the insulator and copper
- Different thermal expansion coefficients (CTEs) of the insulating material and copper change the temperature and join
- Expansion of laser annealing to minimize substrate damage while accelerating intermetallic diffusion by applying heat only to specific areas for a short period of time
- Additional application of low-temperature and high-pressure hydrogen annealing to increase bonding strength by removing the metal oxide layer and chemical activation of the bonding interface

6. Foundry
• Foundry yield and utilization rate investment ideas are distinguished. Technology to increase yields and companies that benefit from increased utilization rates
• FST's EUV Pellicle is a representative technology for increasing yields
• OSAT companies: Doosan Tessna, SFA Semiconductor, Nepassarc, Hana Micron, Gaon Chips, AD Technology, etc

1) Samsung Electronics Foundry Status
• As of Q3 2024, the market share stood at 9.3%, a wide gap from 64.9% of TSMC, the number one player
• Accumulated operating loss is estimated to be close to KRW 5.0 trillion in 2024
• GAA (Gate-All-Around) technology is introduced for the first time in the world in the 3 nano process in the second half of 2022 and mass production of GAA process in the second half of 2024 (GAA process is the gate of the current flowing channel in the transistor)